# Covid Exit Strategy



## Jin (Mar 19, 2020)

Nobody has a great one currently. 

Bottom line:

with a virus with this R0 value we need 75% of our population to be immune in order for the virus to stop spreading. This will cause the R0 to drop to under 1. 

That means either
A) they have antibodies; have recovered 
or
B) they are inoculated. 

We likely won’t have a vaccine ready for public use in 2020. 

Quarantines only work if they are maintained. 

We cannot maintain a national lockdown for the rest of the year. 

China has seemingly stopped the virus but a second wave of infections in all but assured once the lockdown is suspended. They are headed for “back to business” soon.  

Britain’s strategy is to lockdown the elderly population for 4 months (tentative amount of time) and let the virus burn through the younger population. Hoping to build herd immunity while protecting the most vulnerable. 

Japan’s strategy so far has been to pretend everything is ok and make getting a test almost impossible.

We’re in a pickle. There are no easy answers. 

This is what governments have to balance. Different strategies will result in different outcomes. No telling whose strategy is best at this point.


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## Sicwun88 (Mar 19, 2020)

Continue to live like everyday is your last!
I'm over all this Corona nonsense, besides the virus itself,all the media is wearing down everyone's well being,i agree everyone needs to be informed,
Yet all the media & gossip is becoming a sickness of its own!


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## NbleSavage (Mar 19, 2020)

Tough to take what China shares with the rest of the world at face value, but they'll be an interesting canary in a coal mine as to that 2nd wave.

The UK's approach is as good as any: lockdown the at-risk population, build immunity with the healthier younger folks and use what we learn from them in developing the vaccine for the older folks.

In the US, I've been expecting a lockdown this week - hasn't happened yet, but my guess is once testing is more readily available and the real number of infected is known (or close to it) the govt's hand will be forced. Just speculation on my part obviously.


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## German89 (Mar 19, 2020)

I like Japan's plan


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## Flyingdragon (Mar 19, 2020)

Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media.  Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens.  Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters.  Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.  

If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device.  If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out.  Its really that simple!


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## BigSwolePump (Mar 19, 2020)

Flyingdragon said:


> Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media.  Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens.  Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters.  Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.
> 
> If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device.  If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out.  Its really that simple!



Shut you mouth with those facts:32 (18):

It way more fun to to watch tv and follow media narrative.


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## Uncle manny (Mar 19, 2020)

Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....


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## DieYoungStrong (Mar 19, 2020)

Flyingdragon said:


> Funny when Government fails people start blaming the media.  Media isnt in charge of policy or protection of citizens.  Governments have a history of failing during National Disasters.  Some do better jobs than others but overall they fail more times than not.
> 
> If you dont like what the media is reporting, turn off the TV or device.  If you dont like how Government is handling a disaster, vote them out.  Its really that simple!



exactly why socialism or authoritarian govt is not the answer to anything. Govt sucks at doing just about anything.


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## NbleSavage (Mar 19, 2020)

DieYoungStrong said:


> exactly why socialism or authoritarian govt is not the answer to anything. Govt sucks at doing just about anything.



I love to debate the possibilities of an anarchist society as much as the next guy, but I think the near-looting that took place this past week even with supply chains being uninterrupted showed the "thin veneer of civilization" is just that, and we'd almost certainly kill one another without some semblance of authoritarian threat in the face of an actual disruption of necessities. 

I personally see potential in Norway's parliamentary representative democratic constitutional monarchy.


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## white ape (Mar 19, 2020)

NbleSavage said:


> Tough to take what China shares with the rest of the world at face value, but they'll be an interesting canary in a coal mine as to that 2nd wave.
> 
> The UK's approach is as good as any: lockdown the at-risk population, build immunity with the healthier younger folks and use what we learn from them in developing the vaccine for the older folks.
> 
> In the US, I've been expecting a lockdown this week - hasn't happened yet, but my guess is once testing is more readily available and the real number of infected is known (or close to it) the govt's hand will be forced. Just speculation on my part obviously.



I got a text message this morning from Next Level Urgent Care. They are doing virtual appointments and if deemed you need tested they are directing people to the closest drive thru testing facility. This keeps the possibly sick somewhat quarantined I suppose.


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## white ape (Mar 19, 2020)

German89 said:


> I like Japan's plan



Is that the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil plan?


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## German89 (Mar 19, 2020)

white ape said:


> Is that the see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil plan?



Yes sir.

The "pure" plan


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## white ape (Mar 19, 2020)

NbleSavage said:


> I love to debate the possibilities of an anarchist society as much as the next guy, but I think the near-looting that took place this past week even with supply chains being uninterrupted showed the "thin veneer of civilization" is just that, and we'd almost certainly kill one another without some semblance of authoritarian threat in the face of an actual disruption of necessities.
> 
> I personally see potential in Norway's parliamentary representative democratic constitutional monarchy.



That's what I'm saying! "civilized society" is such a farce. Let Americans be without running water or electricity for a week and see what happens. Chaos. 

I actually think less developed countries would do better in situations where the power or water gets turned off. Or even shortages of food or shit paper. They are used to it. Many people in many countries live a simpler life with less material stuff and basic comforts. Being in America scares me more during times like this. "civilized societies" are soft. Look at us freaking out about TP.


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## j2048b (Mar 19, 2020)

Uncle manny said:


> Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....



Easy peazy, they infected all their protestors and sent them out to infect the entire world.... See any protestors once this virus started knocking them out....

Sh its a lot deeper than we think.... Yeah im a conspiracy nut, but too much of it makes sense to me


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## German89 (Mar 19, 2020)

j2048b said:


> Easy peazy, they infected all their protestors and sent them out to infect the entire world.... See any protestors once this virus started knocking them out....
> 
> Sh its a lot deeper than we think.... Yeah im a conspiracy nut, but too much of it makes sense to me



I'm with you on the conspiracy theories


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## white ape (Mar 19, 2020)

German89 said:


> I'm with you on the conspiracy theories



Same. Also all the stuff that they don't teach in school. I was speaking to a woman in line at Target the other day. BSing about TP and panic and all that. I brought up the full of 1918. She had never heard of it and majored in history in college.


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## NbleSavage (Mar 19, 2020)

German89 said:


> I'm with you on the conspiracy theories



Here's another one then - a recording of some dire commentary on COVID from a US Senator on the virus to a small group of well-heeled benefactors and business men weeks before the actual severity was being publicly spoken of by the White House. Think they took advantage of the situation financially?


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## German89 (Mar 19, 2020)

NbleSavage said:


> Here's another one then - a recording of some dire commentary on COVID from a US Senator on the virus to a small group of well-heeled benefactors and business men weeks before the actual severity was being publicly spoken of by the White House. Think they took advantage of the situation financially?



Oh fuc yeah... lemme listen in a few. Just pouring a whiskey and got 2 more chores to accomplish. 

Kinda missed being a stay at home mum


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## Jin (Mar 19, 2020)

Uncle manny said:


> Seems like China is doing well. Seems like they got the virus to magically disappear. What did they do with the largest population to stop the spread of the virus, even acting upon it rather late, compared to Italy with a much smaller population but larger spread. China’s back to business as usual and they’ve taken the smallest hit in the market while the rest of the globe is paralyzed. Hmmm interesting.....



1. You can’t trust the Chinese government to be transparent. Not with their own people and not with the international community. 

2. Not back to business as usual. 

I’m Skyping with my old homestay student again today. He lives in Beijing. I’ll post an update.

two weeks ago he had been in isolation for 6 weeks.


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## NbleSavage (Mar 19, 2020)

^^ In for the update ^^

Hope yer Mate is safe and healthy.


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## Jin (Mar 20, 2020)

Update from Beijing. 

70% back to normal. Most factories open. 

Everyone is tracked by GPS via their cell phones. 

Coming to Beijing from another part of China? 
14 day quarantine. 

Coming from Wuhan? Nope. In fact, nobody in China knows what’s going on in Wuhan. There are rumors of people starving, no water and massive casualties. No proof. 

Anywhere you go you get checked/GPS history verified. 

At the mall enterence. At every store you go into at the mall. At the restaurant or bar before you’re seated. 

So, Beijing is apparently safe. 

And my guess is that there are still hot spots.  The Communist party has a great advantage in “contact tracing” because they already know whose been in contact with who and where they were. 

Probably the most critical tool in the fight to contain a virus. That and an authoritarian government. 

Complete invasion of privacy with great results.

My friend says he’s happy not to have all his “freedoms” because the results are good and he is living a good life. 

Granted, he is very wealthy and privileged. Many Chinese don’t feel the same.


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## Jin (Mar 20, 2020)

https://www.google.co.jp/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51963486


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## transcend2007 (Mar 20, 2020)

This post omits the very promising covid-19 therapies coming online over the next few weeks ... between remdesivir and now the very old malaria drug chloroquine it would seem that April will be the month that wide spread treatment will begin ... while I agree the next 3 weeks are critical it would seem that a drug intervention is now not only likely it is going to happen ... this will change the trajectory and curve of the disease very quickly ... I believe by the end of May we'll be starting to pick up the pieces from this disaster ...


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## Jin (Mar 20, 2020)

transcend2007 said:


> This post omits the very promising covid-19 therapies coming online over the next few weeks ... between remdesivir and now the very old malaria drug chloroquine it would seem that April will be the month that wide spread treatment will begin ... while I agree the next 3 weeks are critical it would seem that a drug intervention is now not only likely it is going to happen ... this will change the trajectory and curve of the disease very quickly ... I believe by the end of May we'll be starting to pick up the pieces from this disaster ...



Correct. This would lead to herd immunity by way of antibodies created after beating the virus.

chloroquine and Zpaks together yield especially promising results. 

The rumor is that is a treatment Korea employed.


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## Uncle manny (Mar 20, 2020)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...oroquine-may-help-cure-coronavirus-study/amp/

That’d be a simple fix. Let’s see if they continue along...


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## transcend2007 (Mar 20, 2020)

Yes sir .. we have to wait until US politicians (republicans and democrats) to make their huge investments in the pharma companies whose drugs are about to be deployed ... then the drugs will be made available to the US public and the world ... until then .. mum is the word ... prolly a black helicopter heading my way as we speak ..... 



Jin said:


> Correct. This would lead to herd immunity by way of antibodies created after beating the virus.
> 
> chloroquine and Zpaks together yield especially promising results.
> 
> The rumor is that is a treatment Korea employed.


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## Jin (Mar 20, 2020)

transcend2007 said:


> Yes sir .. we have to wait until US politicians (republicans and democrats) to make their huge investments in the pharma companies whose drugs are about to be deployed ... then the drugs will be made available to the US public and the world ... until then .. mum is the word ... prolly a black helicopter heading my way as we speak .....



Chloroquine and azithromisin have been around forever and are dirt cheap generic drugs. 

My biggest concern would be that they are likely mostly produced in India and that could be a supply chain issue. 

Chloroquine was backordered when my dad looked into it. 


Just need to get them approved for use on covid if they are found effective (via domestic data).


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## German89 (Mar 20, 2020)

Jin said:


> Chloroquine and azithromisin have been around forever and are dirt cheap generic drugs.
> 
> My biggest concern would be that they are likely mostly produced in India and that could be a supply chain issue.
> 
> ...



I don't know if you've posted it or not


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## Jin (Mar 20, 2020)

German89 said:


> I don't know if you've posted it or not



I watch this guy daily. Excellent source of up to date medical information. 

Ive posted a link to his channel before. 

Great add.


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