# Stock Market Chat



## CohibaRobusto

Anyone here play with stocks or manage their own retirement?

If so, I hope you're making out ok with the recent Coronovirus related declines.

I first started investing / saving for retirement right around the time of the 2008 financial collapse. That scared the shit out of me, and I barely had anything saved. From that point on I made a big effort to educate myself about financial things and investing. I had a family to support, and I realized that I couldn't trust anyone but myself to do what I thought best with our money. (There were a lot of portfolio managers and financial advisors that gave bad advice and lost people's money during the collapse).

I'm doing ok now, and I pulled nearly all of my money in corporate stocks out last fall right at the time of the yield curve inversion. The money I still have invested is mainly in gold ETF's, which have always made up a sizeable defensive part of my portfolio, and some treasury and municipal bond funds that are up right now also because of this madness.

I'm also a fan of crypto, which will probably put a target on my back if we have any traditional investing guys here.

So here's my theory on coronovirus and the market. Things are going to keep getting worse for a while. Anywhere from 2+ months of declines. Best case, we get a vaccine to market pretty fast before any bankruptcy contagion starts (2 mos hypothesis) and things start recovering quickly. 

Worst case, bankruptcies start, a lending weakness emerges (similar to the mortgage crisis in 2008), and contagion spreads kicking off a global financial crisis. The fed and central banks are going to try to head it off by printing money and negative interest rates and it will be a long slow (years) recovery. I'm not ready to predict all-out global financial collapse yet though.

I'm keeping my cash on the sidelines until I feel better about which way things are going. I manage my family's money, and I run all of my big decisions by my wife before I pull the trigger. 2 reasons for that: 

1, it keeps me honest and from acting on dumb ideas (and believe me I get a lot of those), because I don't want to run a dumbass idea by her.

2. it keeps her involved so she knows what's going on, and if things go South and I **** up, well there's "hey, I ran this by you and you signed off on it!" LOL

I think Gold has a bright future right now, that's my only positive stock prediction. I also think the long term BTC charts look good.


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## mugzy

I’m of the opposite opinion. I started buying in last Monday when the DOW dropped by 1,000 points. I purchased more each day all the way down until a Friday. 

Today I placed my last 15k into VOO and everything I have is in. I’m considering taking out a couple of hundred grand on the house next week to purchase more.....

We can debate the corona virus and it’s impact on the market or world if you will all day. I’m of the belief this is a major opportunity to invest cash. We can revisit the post another time to confirm.


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## rawdeal

lol.  George Foreman once pointed out people may play Baseball, Football, Basketball, etc, but nobody "plays" Boxing.

I'm thinking nobody does, or at least should, play stocks.  Not picking atcha, just had to get my infrequent Boxing references in here somewhere.


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## CohibaRobusto

mugzy said:


> I’m of the opposite opinion. I started buying in last Monday when the DOW dropped by 1,000 points. I purchased more each day all the way down until a Friday.
> 
> Today I placed my last 15k into VOO and everything I have is in. I’m considering taking out a couple of hundred grand on the house next week to purchase more.....
> 
> We can debate the corona virus and it’s impact on the market or world if you will all day. I’m of the belief this is a major opportunity to invest cash. We can revisit the post another time to confirm.



This is exactly why I posted this. I like to hear other opinions.


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## CJ

I invest the same amount each month, so I'm just happy everything is on sale right now. More for my dollar.


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## dk8594

I don’t try to time the market because I don’t have time to pour over the financial statements of companies or be a part time economist. Nor do I listen to financial news to hear someone else’s opinion; I would much rather form my own.

My approach is more to understand risk/ reward profiles of different securities and annually review my portfolio to make sure it aligns with my risk profile.


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## gymrat827

good time to offset losses for gains as well.  

I dont foresee it NOT being a roller coaster for the next few months.  Unless a vac is put out and this whole thing stops by 4th of july

But the supply chains will not be what they were in the Asian countries for years.....again...unless a vac comes out to put an end to things


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## snake

One good thing about being poor, I don't need to worry about this stuff.


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## simplesteve

I really only invest in the s&p, I don't plan on pulling any of the money out any time soon.


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## The Tater

I invest with a long term strategy in mind. A couple of mutual funds and some stocks. I have been buying NUE this week. Strong jobs report, economy is rolling right along, buy on the dip.


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## Iron1

Dollar cost averaging will have the most consistent long term gains. 
Up or down, just keep socking money into solid equities and index funds. 

I do find it funny when people pull out of the stock market when it dips. Blue chip companies aren't losing value, they're just temporarily on sale. It's like a Black Friday fire sale for equities. 

Selling in a dip and buying when it recovers is a good way to blow out your account.


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## CohibaRobusto

simplesteve said:


> I really only invest in the s&p, I don't plan on pulling any of the money out any time soon.



I think this is a good strategy too. If I wasn't really on top of what was going on, and if I didn't manage my own retirement through etrade, I'd just keep feeding the index funds regardless of the days' events. Because I feel like ultimately it is safe and will keep going up.

My plan right now is to wait until things get drawn down as low as I think they can go and a bottom starts to form, then start getting back in peacemeal.

There is this advice I've heard "never try to catch a falling knife" that I've fell victim to a few times already, so I'm really gunshy about jumping back in too soon. I've been stuck in some stuff for long periods of time because I did that, and I've lost money because of doing that and selling to get into something better.

I also Know I missed out on some gains by getting out at the end of last year, but I feel good about it now.


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## Thatgoodfellow

I actually just started messing around with TD Ameritrade’s sink or swim. I just did paper money so it gave me 100k to invest and learn with. I bought VOO SOXX and ACES. So far I’m only down 6k with how shitty everything’s been.. Still have a long way to go in learning and educating myself on what to invest in.


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## CohibaRobusto

Thatgoodfellow said:


> I actually just started messing around with TD Ameritrade’s sink or swim. I just did paper money so it gave me 100k to invest and learn with. I bought VOO SOXX and ACES. So far I’m only down 6k with how shitty everything’s been.. Still have a long way to go in learning and educating myself on what to invest in.



Man just read, read, read.. I also like Bloomberg radio, they interview some really amazing big players in the financial industry and well educated folks. I like Stansberry Digest, but try a bunch of financial newsletters and watch over time to see who gives the best advice. 

I tend to err more on the paranoid / prepper mindset, doom and gloom. I have to find a balance between being cautious and being paranoid.


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## Iron1

CohibaRobusto said:


> Man just read, read, read.. I also like Bloomberg radio, they interview some really amazing big players in the financial industry and well educated folks.



Be very careful about who you're taking advice from. 

Consider this; there is only so much money in the stock market at any given time. All of those big players and ultra rich people stand to make a ton of money by offering bad advice and cashing in on it. This happens all the time in penny stocks. Some financial guru who already owns a shit ton of penny stock hypes the shit out of it on investing forums. The rubes buy in and the price sky rockets. The financial guru cashes out and watches everyone elses minds explode when that "sure thing" stock turns out to be overvalued junk. 

*
When it comes to "playing the market", in order for one person to profit, another person must lose.

*As the saying goes "Beware an old man in a place where men die young".


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## Gadawg

I have a good money guy. At least I hope hes good. I hate financial stuff so I let it to someone who likes it


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## CohibaRobusto

Iron1, I totally agree. I don't mess with penny stocks at all and I would never recommend that to anyone. 

I try to get as much information as I can and from different sources. Most of my decisions are based on my experience and usually what I'm hearing from people that have shown themselves to be trustworthy over time.


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## transcend2007

The work 40 years to retire at 65 invest in stable mutual funds never interested me ... I invest in real estate from money earned in my own businesses ... I've made millions and lost along the way mostly due to 2 divorces ... but at least I feel more in control of my own destiny ...


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## Rot-Iron66

Im long term 401K person, I dont worry about normal ups/downs like this. 30 years of 401K's (A million dollars in the darn thing), I will be watching when the time comes to live on it though. (Safely moving it, IRA, etc)..


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## j2048b

im to stupid to understand all this....even tho im edumicated....

whats a good app to start with that gives u fake money to work with? i have buddies who make money every day, i just dont know enough to even start...but need to start making my money work for me


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## Thatgoodfellow

j2048b said:


> im to stupid to understand all this....even tho im edumicated....
> 
> whats a good app to start with that gives u fake money to work with? i have buddies who make money every day, i just dont know enough to even start...but need to start making my money work for me



td ameritrade sink or swim app. If you use the paper money option it gives you 200k to invest with using an IRA account and a brokerage account.


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## Thatgoodfellow

Iron1 said:


> Be very careful about who you're taking advice from.
> 
> Consider this; there is only so much money in the stock market at any given time. All of those big players and ultra rich people stand to make a ton of money by offering bad advice and cashing in on it. This happens all the time in penny stocks. Some financial guru who already owns a shit ton of penny stock hypes the shit out of it on investing forums. The rubes buy in and the price sky rockets. The financial guru cashes out and watches everyone elses minds explode when that "sure thing" stock turns out to be overvalued junk.
> 
> *
> When it comes to "playing the market", in order for one person to profit, another person must lose.
> 
> *As the saying goes "Beware an old man in a place where men die young".



So true. I’m learning how to use different analysis techniques that will apply to knowing when I should get into and when to get out. Understanding trends, reading candlestick charts and Financial reports etc...


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## Iron1

Just know that all those chart tools such as stochastic and MACD are reactionary. They can only make a best guess based on what's already happened. The day to day market fluctuations are based almost exclusively on human emotion which is nigh impossible to predict.

I did technical analysis for a few years, not anymore.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.


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## The Tater

Iron1 said:


> Just know that all those chart tools such as stochastic and MACD are reactionary. They can only make a best guess based on what's already happened. The day to day market fluctuations are based almost exclusively on human emotion which is nigh impossible to predict.
> 
> I did technical analysis for a few years, not anymore.
> 
> Buy the rumor, sell the news.



Yes! If you are reading an article about it today, it’s likely too late!


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## CohibaRobusto

I'm more of a macro trend guy, i don't know enough about technical analysis to day trade. I know some basics about chart patterns, but I tend to only make moves on macro trends and not very often.


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## Bobbyloads

transcend2007 said:


> The work 40 years to retire at 65 invest in stable mutual funds never interested me ... I invest in real estate from money earned in my own businesses ... I've made millions and lost along the way mostly due to 2 divorces ... but at least I feel more in control of my own destiny ...



The stock market shit scares me too what kind of properties you invest in? I do not have a retirement fund at all I am 36 and I need to do something asap to start building for the future. I was thinking condos and let them pay themselves off by the time im 65 if i have like 4 or 5 should be ok no?


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## simplesteve

Bobbyloads said:


> The stock market shit scares me too what kind of properties you invest in? I do not have a retirement fund at all I am 36 and I need to do something asap to start building for the future. I was thinking condos and let them pay themselves off by the time im 65 if i have like 4 or 5 should be ok no?




Starting an IRA with Fidelity is pretty simple andshould at least get you on the right track.


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## CohibaRobusto

This guy makes a good case for a quick recovery.

The Melt-Up In Stocks To Come https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330282?source=ansh


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## transcend2007

Bobbyloads said:


> The stock market shit scares me too what kind of properties you invest in? I do not have a retirement fund at all I am 36 and I need to do something asap to start building for the future. I was thinking condos and let them pay themselves off by the time im 65 if i have like 4 or 5 should be ok no?



Most people work for others and they have 2 options .. spend everything they make and retire broke (work until they die basically) ... the other Dave Ramsey group who is told to live frugally ... put away 15% to 20% of their earnings into an investment plan and live a lower middle class lifestyle for 40 years to retire at 65 - 70 with a few million dollars (only issue is 20-40 years from now a few millions dollars will be worth shit and they will continue to live a lower middle class lifestyle ...

Of course Dave Ramsey and most business owners have the ability to collapse time and earn far more in a much shorter time frame (they do not use either strategy above) ... although we save do so with a different mindset .. one of creating a lifestyle today and growing assets to support that lifestyle passively in the future ... the very idea of saving for a better life someday is a fvcking joke .. and the ones selling it all know it ... most investment brokers / financial planners ... people telling people to do one thing but do something very differently themselves.

The way I invest in real estate .. I pay my own house off first and then purchase single family homes (rentals) that I also pay off so that they are passive income generators that appreciate in value over time that also provide tax shelters and other tax benefits .... I'm doing this for the 3rd and last time and my last 2 owned homes and rentals were liquidated to pay for divorces (that I do take 100% responsibility for) .. I can its an easier and faster strategy now .. because I know exactly what my goal is this time around.

I do invest in stocks and bonds as well .. but not with mindset of building future net worth or wealth .. my businesses build wealth ... the idea is to maintain my assets and create passive income streams ...


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## CohibaRobusto

Bobbyloads said:


> The stock market shit scares me too what kind of properties you invest in? I do not have a retirement fund at all I am 36 and I need to do something asap to start building for the future. I was thinking condos and let them pay themselves off by the time im 65 if i have like 4 or 5 should be ok no?



Another neat option to save is a Roth IRA. You can set one up through Etrade or any of those other financial service companies. 

The cool thing about a Roth, is that any money you put in now already has taxes paid on it. And when you withdraw from it at retirement, that money you take out and it's growth is tax free. 

So if you were to put in $5k and in 20 years it has grown to $50k, you can take your money and that income out without paying any additional tax on it.

This is a little gift from uncle sam in a way, because the government doesn't have too many ways to avoid paying taxes on income for us simple folk. And they do have pretty strict limits on how much money you can do this with annually.

I am not too good at saving for things, so I just set up my IRA to automatically transfer.a small amount into it from my checking account every few weeks. That way I barely even notice it's happening.


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## Bobbyloads

transcend2007 said:


> Most people work for others and they have 2 options .. spend everything they make and retire broke (work until they die basically) ... the other Dave Ramsey group who is told to live frugally ... put away 15% to 20% of their earnings into an investment plan and live a lower middle class lifestyle for 40 years to retire at 65 - 70 with a few million dollars (only issue is 20-40 years from now a few millions dollars will be worth shit and they will continue to live a lower middle class lifestyle ...
> 
> Of course Dave Ramsey and most business owners have the ability to collapse time and earn far more in a much shorter time frame (they do not use either strategy above) ... although we save do so with a different mindset .. one of creating a lifestyle today and growing assets to support that lifestyle passively in the future ... the very idea of saving for a better life someday is a fvcking joke .. and the ones selling it all know it ... most investment brokers / financial planners ... people telling people to do one thing but do something very differently themselves.
> 
> The way I invest in real estate .. I pay my own house off first and then purchase single family homes (rentals) that I also pay off so that they are passive income generators that appreciate in value over time that also provide tax shelters and other tax benefits .... I'm doing this for the 3rd and last time and my last 2 owned homes and rentals were liquidated to pay for divorces (that I do take 100% responsibility for) .. I can its an easier and faster strategy now .. because I know exactly what my goal is this time around.
> 
> I do invest in stocks and bonds as well .. but not with mindset of building future net worth or wealth .. my businesses build wealth ... the idea is to maintain my assets and create passive income streams ...



I just gotta man up and pull the trigger ASAP have the cash put away for a down payment for a house/condo and luckily at the moment I make enough where I can save a down payment for like at least 2 a year I really need to start doing it.


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## Bobbyloads

CohibaRobusto said:


> Another neat option to save is a Roth IRA. You can set one up through Etrade or any of those other financial service companies.
> 
> The cool thing about a Roth, is that any money you put in now already has taxes paid on it. And when you withdraw from it at retirement, that money you take out and it's growth is tax free.
> 
> So if you were to put in $5k and in 20 years it has grown to $50k, you can take your money and that income out without paying any additional tax on it.
> 
> This is a little gift from uncle sam in a way, because the government doesn't have too many ways to avoid paying taxes on income for us simple folk. And they do have pretty strict limits on how much money you can do this with annually.
> 
> I am not too good at saving for things, so I just set up my IRA to automatically transfer.a small amount into it from my checking account every few weeks. That way I barely even notice it's happening.



right now I’m laying like $450 a month into a life insurance but it will only be like 200k if I die or once I can cash it out been looking into the Roth IRAs as well should start doing it even if putting like $25-$50 a week just to get something in there


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## CohibaRobusto

Yeah those whole life policies are interesting. I looked at them but never pulled the trigger.


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## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> Yeah those whole life policies are interesting. I looked at them but never pulled the trigger.



They're a joke!!!

Buy a term policy for 1/10th the cost, if you even need life insurance, and just invest the difference yourself. 

Insurance is insurance. Investments are investments.


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## CJ

Bobbyloads said:


> right now I’m laying like $450 a month into a life insurance but it will only be like 200k if I die or once I can cash it out been looking into the Roth IRAs as well should start doing it even if putting like $25-$50 a week just to get something in there





Get out of the whole life, buy a term policy if needed.

I have a $500,000 policy that costs $40/month, 20 year term. If you get similar, you have over $400/month to invest, which will almost fully fund an IRA for a year.

Hell, that's how much you'll be putting in over 40 years, with ZERO interst/gains. A 0% return, actually a NEGATIVE return when you factor in inflation. 

If I were putting $450/month into an investment vehicle, and only expected $200k when I died, I'd be fukkin pissed!!!


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## Boytoy

All just seems big gamble imo.  Work, put money in bank.  Repeat.  500 at craps table once in while


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## Bobbyloads

CJ275 said:


> Get out of the whole life, buy a term policy if needed.
> 
> I have a $500,000 policy that costs $40/month, 20 year term. If you get similar, you have over $400/month to invest, which will almost fully fund an IRA for a year.
> 
> Hell, that's how much you'll be putting in over 40 years, with ZERO interst/gains. A 0% return, actually a NEGATIVE return when you factor in inflation.
> 
> If I were putting $450/month into an investment vehicle, and only expected $200k when I died, I'd be fukkin pissed!!!



I have one of those for $90 a month for $500k but I don’t get that money back I’m basically paying $90 a month to bet I will die before I’m 60 so my family can cash out the other one I look at it like putting money aside in case I don’t die cause I’m 1099 don’t have a 401k or pension.


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## CJ

Bobbyloads said:


> I have one of those for $90 a month for $500k but I don’t get that money back I’m basically paying $90 a month to bet I will die before I’m 60 so my family can cash out the other one I look at it like putting money aside in case I don’t die cause I’m 1099 don’t have a 401k or pension.



You're not "betting", it's INSURANCE. Just like auto or home insurance. You don't tie an investment to those, do you? You know why? Because you do MUCH better investing on your own. 

If you invested that same $400 per month instead of putting it into the insurance policy, assuming a 7% rate of return, which is conservative, you'd have close to $1,000,000 after 40 years, while your whole life would only give you the $200,000. In your scenario, you spend $200,000 and get $200,000 back(which is losing money, inflation), in my scenario you invest $200,000 and get back $1,000,000. Oh, and you don't have to die to get the money either! :32 (18):

You don't need a 401k or pension. IRAs or regular brokerage accounts are both options.


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## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> They're a joke!!!
> 
> Buy a term policy for 1/10th the cost, if you even need life insurance, and just invest the difference yourself.
> 
> Insurance is insurance. Investments are investments.



Well, I guess that's why I never did it. I think some are better than others though as you can get a guaranteed rate of return and withdraw from them after a certain time.

I agree that it's weird to mix life insurance with investment. I have a term life personallly. It's very cheap, and would help out wife and kids considerably if I died.


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## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> ... I think some are better than others though as you can get a guaranteed rate of return and withdraw from them after a certain time....



Then just buy Treasury bonds.


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## Bobbyloads

CJ275 said:


> You're not "betting", it's INSURANCE. Just like auto or home insurance. You don't tie an investment to those, do you? You know why? Because you do MUCH better investing on your own.
> 
> If you invested that same $400 per month instead of putting it into the insurance policy, assuming a 7% rate of return, which is conservative, you'd have close to $1,000,000 after 40 years, while your whole life would only give you the $200,000. In your scenario, you spend $200,000 and get $200,000 back(which is losing money, inflation), in my scenario you invest $200,000 and get back $1,000,000. Oh, and you don't have to die to get the money either! :32 (18):
> 
> You don't need a 401k or pension. IRAs or regular brokerage accounts are both options.



I understand I started too late I just want it there in case I die and I will be making other investments very soon but your right I might as well keep the $90/month and the 500k pay out and use that $400 saving for the next investment


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## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> Then just buy Treasury bonds.



That's actually what I do. Or at least part of my investing strategy. I really like IIM, it's a muni bond fund that has a really high rate of return that I'm pretty sure is mostly exempt from federal income tax. I bought a bunch of TLT before it popped recently also.


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## mugzy

Today I will be selling any bonds and bond related funds moving to mid cap aggressive. I'm also taking a position in GE as it is down 11.28% premarket @ $8.31


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## Seeker

For the 1st time since 1991 there was a 15 minute trading freeze. Oil is down over 30% to $30 a barrel.


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## DF

Seeker said:


> For the 1st time since 1991 there was a 15 minute trading freeze. Oil is down over 30% to $30 a barrel.



Time to fill the oil barrel! :32 (19):


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## Flyingdragon

A drop in oil results in cheaper gas prices at the pump, u can call it a temp tax cut....


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## CohibaRobusto

mugzy said:


> Today I will be selling any bonds and bond related funds moving to mid cap aggressive. I'm also taking a position in GE as it is down 11.28% premarket @ $8.31



The ultimate contrarian, I like that! Go mugz! I hope it pays off man.

I'm too scared. Waiting it out. TLT popped up again today though, IIM and IAU are holding strong too, these are what most of my money is in now. I have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines too, waiting for a bottom. I'm not buying that guy's quick recovery thesis I posted, not right now at least.


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## MrRippedZilla

The oil crash is due to Russia & Saudi Arabia having a pissing match about whether or not to reduce supply. This is actually a much bigger economic nightmare than the coronovirus because, while good for consumers, it's very bad for anyone holding mid-small cap US shale producers. Not only in terms of equity valuations but also in terms of the sustainability of their debt. Basically, you could be ****ed if you have high yield corporate debt right now. I'm expecting some defaults. 

For me, it's another day of continuing to drip-feed back into equities. Tempting as it is to be more aggressive with the drip-feeds, I don't see a bottom anytime soon so I'm keeping some dry powder (spare cash) in reserve for future buying opportunities.  I've closed a short position (betting on the price of something going down) I had on crude oil for a couple of weeks too. With high volatility, comes opportunity my dudes. Just saying.


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## DF

I used to do frequent trades years ago.  The mid to late 90's when it was hard to lose value.  I always had great results with oil related stocks.


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## mugzy

Picked up VOO this morning at 252.91 its currently 259.62 I will sell at 262.


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## Seeker

My son, whose 16 years old is extremely interested in the stock market. Lol he has been following it since he was 14. For Christmas, I opened an account for him with some money using my  name. Since he's not 18 yet, we had to do it this way. Lol he's all up in arms every morning. I dont get involved, he wants me to let him do his own thing. If I try to say something, he gets all bent out of shape. Well, it's his money to gain or lose. I gave it to him with the that agreement.


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## Beserker

The plunge is great news IMO.  Today’s drop is fed in large part by the Saudis/Russian attempt at crude price manipulation. We will benefit from cheap gas for a while to come...

Mark my words.  As the COVID frenzy fizzles out due to spring/summer and the media’s insatiable need to feed on something new, the market will rebound at an amazing pace and by Election Day will erase all losses.


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## Flyingdragon

Cheap oil will result in massive layoffs and BKs in the Permian Basin.  Around 40% of the oil we take out of the ground is tied to companies with high yield debt which depend on oil being higher not lower.  Today there are drillers who are losing $15+ a barrel on what they bring up, output costs range from $48-$54 a barrel....U cant do that long before u r out of business.....Add that to the debt payments due and u have a disaster in the making for the industry.  




Beserker said:


> The plunge is great news IMO.  Today’s drop is fed in large part by the Saudis/Russian attempt at crude price manipulation. We will benefit from cheap gas for a while to come...
> 
> Mark my words.  As the COVID frenzy fizzles out due to spring/summer and the media’s insatiable need to feed on something new, the market will rebound at an amazing pace and by Election Day will erase all losses.


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## NbleSavage

I don't have the mind or the training fer speculating on the stock market. 

We've got a guy in my company with two PhDs - one from Wharton in applied economics and one from MIT in theoretical mathematics. We call him "The Machine". 

He sets the prices on all our major projects, and oversees where we invest and where we pull back. I've seen him leave for lunch, glance at CNN or the like, look at what the market's doing and say something off the cuff like "it'll be here XX in 90 minutes" and fook if he ain't right.

He told me years back when I came up in this company to buy index funds and forget about 'em. I've done that. He says timing the market is a fool's errand - too much uncertainty and the "madness of crowds". I figure he's the closest to an expert I'll ever know, and so I listen to him. No regrets so far.


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## Iron1

NbleSavage said:


> He told me years back when I came up in this company to buy index funds and forget about 'em. I've done that. He says timing the market is a fool's errand - too much uncertainty and the "madness of crowds".



He (and you) are right. 

Micromanaging your account is a pretty good way to chew up potential profits with various fees and taxes. Playing the market is akin to gambling


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## CJ

Iron1 said:


> He (and you) are right.
> 
> Micromanaging your account is a pretty good way to chew up potential profits with various fees and taxes. Playing the market is akin to gambling



That's my plan too. Just get in the game, mostly diversified index funds, a couple actively managed funds in emerging markets and large caps, and a REIT, good enough.


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## Beserker

Flyingdragon said:


> Cheap oil will result in massive layoffs and BKs in the Permian Basin.  Around 40% of the oil we take out of the ground is tied to companies with high yield debt which depend on oil being higher not lower.  Today there are drillers who are losing $15+ a barrel on what they bring up, output costs range from $48-$54 a barrel....U cant do that long before u r out of business.....Add that to the debt payments due and u have a disaster in the making for the industry.



I don’t doubt what you said, however I would suggest that the money put back in the pockets of people like myself who spend $600/month on fuel Will go a long way to stimulate the economy.  

Further more, the airline industry will see relief from fewer flights by saving a fukton on jet fuel.  Truckers, make out, etc.  

The economy is doing so well now, with record unemployment that the optimism and the financial well being so many are coming to see lately will crush all fear mongering. 

For example, I build homes for a top 25 builder.  We have blown away all sales plans and set records for sales in January and February this year... the traditional weakest months of the year.  I’m so busy that the subs have trouble keeping up, and there’s a labor shortage even at all time low unemployment.  A memo was just released internally that despite the hysteria, we’re still on the uptick.  

This will pass, and we’ll be the better for it.  The oil companies will easily weather the storm. Never mind the zero percent interest rates coming and stimulus packages... boom!


----------



## gymrat827

pairing oil prices with the virus is one reason for a market panic and instability.


----------



## Beserker

Beserker said:


> For example, I build homes for a top 25 builder.  We have blown away all sales plans and set records for sales in January and February this year... the traditional weakest months of the year.  I’m so busy that the subs have trouble keeping up, and there’s a labor shortage even at all time low unemployment.  A memo was just released internally that despite the hysteria, we’re still on the uptick.



to follow up on this, we sold 16 homes yesterday as the DOW dropped 2k.  1st quarter last year, our mortgage division originated $490 million in loans. 2020 Q1 is on pace for well over $1 billion.  The housing market is a true indicator of the economy IMO.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I hit a trailing stop on IIM today, so I didn't lose any money on it and made the monthly dividends while I was in. I'm going to stay in cash for a while on this one.


----------



## MrRippedZilla

After the market rout today, we may be close to the floor. Equity markets across the board are down 23-27% since all this started. I don't see this going past 30% under any circumstances so, for those trying to time the market (good luck with that btw), you might want to be ready to pull the trigger on that buy order.

I will repeat my note of caution from earlier: avoid high yielding corporate debt. Honestly, you should avoid bonds of all kinds right now but that particular corner of the market is begging for defaults. Stay away.


----------



## The Tater

Profit sharing hits tomorrow. Looking forward to that!


----------



## simplesteve

I've just been sticking taxes and my paycheck into the S&P.  Looking to keep saving for another 10 years so this is probably a good time to contribute.


----------



## NbleSavage

MrRippedZilla said:


> After the market rout today, we may be close to the floor. Equity markets across the board are down 23-27% since all this started. I don't see this going past 30% under any circumstances so, for those trying to time the market (good luck with that btw), you might want to be ready to pull the trigger on that buy order."



Say more on this. I never understood folks who could look at the markets and say "its going to do this" or the like. Serious question - not taking the piss, I want to better understand this.


----------



## Viduus

mugzy said:


> I’m of the opposite opinion. I started buying in last Monday when the DOW dropped by 1,000 points. I purchased more each day all the way down until a Friday.
> 
> Today I placed my last 15k into VOO and everything I have is in. I’m considering taking out a couple of hundred grand on the house next week to purchase more.....
> 
> We can debate the corona virus and it’s impact on the market or world if you will all day. I’m of the belief this is a major opportunity to invest cash. We can revisit the post another time to confirm.



I think China and South Korea will be a leading indicator. My plan is to invest cash until they both rebound GDP-wise.


----------



## Viduus

NbleSavage said:


> Say more on this. I never understood folks who could look at the markets and say "its going to do this" or the like. Serious question - not taking the piss, I want to better understand this.



Right now you’re going to see a split in sentiment that could lead to opportunities.

Many hedge funds etc. need to make short term gains to keep returns where they need them. They’re looking at the next six months and they think sales will be down for many companies.. therefore the worth of the companies/stock is going to drop. Selling and switching to bonds or other instruments that are “safer” (Zilla has a point on defaults)

Other people are looking at a long term horizon. The vast majority of the companies will go through a sales decline then return back to normal *at some point*. Therefore buying now or during the decline is highly likely to give you a good return when that rebound happens.

dropping 25-30% is a huge drop and it prices in some pretty significant corporate sales loses. Who knows how far it’ll drop but Zilla is obviously thinking things won’t get worse then what’s currently priced in.

My comment was about watching China and South Korea. If they finish getting it under control and you see their businesses starting to recover - you have an answer. If we respond as aggressively as they did then you’re talking a 2-3 month dip and then a rebound. Buy now expecting the rebound within 6 months. If they botch it, 30% down might just be the beginning.


----------



## CJ

What are your guys thoughts on investing in specific sectors of the market?

Financials and Energy are getting clobbered, but I don't have the time, or knowledge frankly, to research individual companies.

My though process would be to throw a small amount at these sectors, hoping that since they had the biggest drop, they MIGHT have the biggest rebound. 

Not looking to do this today, but in the next few weeks, depending upon what happens.


----------



## Viduus

CJ275 said:


> What are your guys thoughts on investing in specific sectors of the market?
> 
> Financials and Energy are getting clobbered, but I don't have the time, or knowledge frankly, to research individual companies.
> 
> My though process would be to throw a small amount at these sectors, hoping that since they had the biggest drop, they MIGHT have the biggest rebound.
> 
> Not looking to do this today, but in the next few weeks, depending upon what happens.



Anyone interested should read the various books by Benjamin Graham. He’s the father of value investing.

Generally speaking you should invest in an ETF instead of individual funds or an actively managed mutual funds. ETFs are purely computerized with no manager drawing compensation. They are used to track baskets of stocks like full indexes. (S&P is a great one)

If you feel a full sector is experiencing a short to medium term slump then an ETF that tracks that sector would be a fantastic investment. I’ve never looked into whether or not the exist but I’d be shocked if they didn’t. It’s a classic use case.

edit: spelling - as usual


----------



## CJ

Viduus said:


> If you feel a full sector is experiencing a short to medium term slump then an ETF that tracks that sector would be a fantastic investment. I’ve never looked into whether or not the exist but I’d be shocked if they didn’t. It’s a classic use case.
> 
> edit: spelling - as usual



Yes, they have those ETFs at Vanguard. Was what I was thinking about.


----------



## Flyingdragon

If u have no time to follow stocks, buy an ETF
If u dont trust a broker to handle your account, buy an ETF
If u are lazy about your retirement $$$, buy an ETF

Not a fan of ETFs.....With the market so low, u can throw a dart at a list of stocks and do very well long term.....
U think Warren Buffet is investing in ETF's, **** no!




CJ275 said:


> Yes, they have those ETFs at Vanguard. Was what I was thinking about.


----------



## MrRippedZilla

NbleSavage said:


> Say more on this. I never understood folks who could look at the markets and say "its going to do this" or the like. Serious question - not taking the piss, I want to better understand this.


In order to take into account the economic costs stemming from the actions of politicians, specifically the impact on earnings, along with the fact that central banks can't solve this problem, the markets needed to drop 20-30%.The economic costs that we're dealing is a guaranteed global recession - 2 negative quarters, one of which will be really nasty, at a minimum and a drop of that level is realistic IMO. 

Now, could it go lower than that? Depends. I've seen 2 things this week, and 1 long term concern, that should raise some eyebrows:

- Liquidity risk.
 This is complicated to explain but stems from the high levels of volatility we're seeing right now. We have no buyers and a hell of a lot of sellers. That's a problem that could lead to a systemic crisis. It is up to central banks to inject some cash back into the system in these situations to make sure markets don't malfunction and, thankfully, the NY fed did that. QE (central banks printing more money) is back in the game and needs to stay in the game.

- Credit risk.
 I think defaults are inevitable. Hence my warnings about avoiding high yielding corporate debt. It's the one segment of the market that was already heavily leveraged and is screaming to be tipped over. Defaults mean job losses. It is important for governments, globally, to be aware of this consequence to their actions and be ready to act accordingly. Because make no mistake, this has jackshit to do with the health impact of the virus. It's about the government responses to the virus. 

- My long term concern is about the virus and how suicidal governments feel like being in their response to it. 
This virus isn't going away until we get a vaccine. That's 12-18 months at a minimum. We're hoping it goes down in the summer like influenza does. Hoping. We don't actually know. And the nail in the coffin: even if it does go down in the summer, it'll be back in action in the winter. So, what democratically elected government is going to decide to quarantine people for 3-6 months of year in total? Especially when humans have zero chance of abiding by it so...martial law? Good luck with that. 

To summarize, 20-30% takes into account the fallout from this virus as long as a) central banks do their jobs properly (which I think they will) and b) governments don't adopt a long term suicidal pact into oblivion. I'm torn on the last one. Politicians are pretty thick at the best of times. Regardless, this is a long term game. Buy now, close your eyes for 12 months and you'll be fine.


----------



## Viduus

CJ275 said:


> Yes, they have those ETFs at Vanguard. Was what I was thinking about.



Trump is ordering the Us to refill it’s strategic oil reserves. I’m guessing this has already boosted that sector. (Sure it’s his thinking anyway)


----------



## Viduus

Flyingdragon said:


> If u have no time to follow stocks, buy an ETF
> If u dont trust a broker to handle your account, buy an ETF
> If u are lazy about your retirement $$$, buy an ETF
> 
> Not a fan of ETFs.....With the market so low, u can throw a dart at a list of stocks and do very well long term.....
> U think Warren Buffet is investing in ETF's, **** no!



You nailed the top 3 reasons I buy etfs


----------



## simplesteve

Markets gonna crash tommorow morning.


----------



## Flyingdragon

Implied open is -201, will be another wild ride




simplesteve said:


> Markets gonna crash tommorow morning.


----------



## CJ

Good, I haven't put my chips in yet.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fj6bdh/we_are_now_in_the_10th_official_bear_market_since/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

_*We are now in the 10th official bear market since 1950. Here are some quick stats & notes on the previous 9...*_

I just stumbled across this during my weekend reads this afternoon and just thought it was worth sharing with all of you guys in here as well.

Listed below are the max. % pullback on each respective bear markets; bear market start; bear market bottom; recovery back to new highs; and finally the catalyst for the bear market.

I hope you all enjoy this little read through of the previous U.S. bear markets!

The Bear Market of 1956-1957:
Max. Pullback: -21.5%

Start: August 6th, 1956

Bottom: October 22th 1957.

Recovery: Septemer 24th, 1958 (15 months to bottom; 11 months for recovery)

Catalyst: The "Eisenhower Recession" of 1957-'58 that lasted 8 months.

The Bear Market of 1961-1962:
Max. Pullback: -28%

Start: December 13th, 1961

Bottom: June 26th, 1962

Recovery: September 3rd, 1963 (7 months to bottom; 14 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Flash Crash of 1961-'62: The "Kennedy Slide". Market came close to the bottom again during the Cuban Missile Crisis in Oct 1962.

The Bear Market of 1966:
Max. Pullback: -22.2%

Start: February 10th, 1966

Bottom: October 7th, 1966

Recovery: May 4th, 1967 (8 months to bottom; 7 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Financial Crisis/Credit Crunch of 1966.

The Bear Market of 1968-1970:
Max. Pullback: -36.1%

Start: December 2nd, 1968

Bottom: May 26th, 1970

Recovery: March 6th, 1972 (18 months to bottom; 22 months for recovery)

Catalyst: 1969-'70 Recession - a "mild one" that lasted 11 months.

The Bear Market of 1973-1974:
Max. Pullback: -48.2%

Start: January 12th, 1973

Bottom: October 3rd, 1974

Recovery: July 17th, 1980 (21 months to bottom; 70 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Oil crisis of 1973, 1973-'75 recession that lasted 17 months, stagflation (high unemployment & high inflation).

The Bear Market of 1980-1982:
Max. Pullback: -27.1%

Start: November 21st 1980

Bottom: August 12th, 1982

Recovery: November 3rd, 1982 (21 months to bottom; 3 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Volcker tightening and 1981-'82 recession that lasted 18 months. Recession ended in 1982, as bear market recovered to prior peak.

The Bear Market of 1987:
Max. Pullback: -33.5%

Start: August 26th, 1987

Bottom: December 4th, 1987

Recovery: July 26th, 1989 (3 months to bottom; 20 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Black Monday (Oct 19), but bottom was only in Dec. Recovery surprisingly long but Fed made a series of rate hikes in 1988 to fight inflation.

The Bear Market of 2000-2002:
Max. Pullback: -49.1%

Start: March 27th, 2000

Bottom: October 9th, 2002

Recovery: May 30th, 2007 (31 months to bottom - 56 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Dot-com crash, 2001 recession, 9/11.

The Bear Market of 2007-2009:
Max. Pullback: -56.8%

Start: October 10th 2007

Bottom: March 9th, 2009

Recovery: March 28th, 2013 (17 months to bottom; 49 months for recovery)

Catalyst: Housig bubble crash, Great Financial Crisis.

The Bear Market of 2020-?:
Max. Pullback: -26.7% (so far...)

Start: February 20th, 2020

Bottom: ?

Recovery: ?

Catalyst: COVID-19.

Conclusions:
Worse the drawdown, larger the gain required to hit prior peak.

-20% -> +25% to recover
-25% -> +33%
-30% -> +43%
-35% -> +54%
-50% -> +100%
-60% -> +150%
In other words, deeper the drawdown, longer the recovery. (eg, 1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09)

Last but not least:
Since 1950-

Fastest crash: 1987 bear market (3 months)

Fastest recovery: 1980-1982 bear market (3 months)

6 out of 9 bear markets came amid recessions.

3 of the worst bear markets came amid deep recessions (1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09).


----------



## Jin

Dad never had “The Bulls and The Bears” talk with me. 

Is that where profits and losses come from??


----------



## NbleSavage

Jin said:


> Dad never had “The Bulls and The Bears” talk with me.
> 
> Is that where profits and losses come from??



By this logic, would an ETF equate to masturbation?


----------



## mugzy

I have been bouncing in and out for the last week. After the Friday 9.3% gain I moved to 50% cash. Good thing because today will be another buying opportunity.


----------



## Viduus

NbleSavage said:


> By this logic, would an ETF equate to masturbation?



Basically it would equate to a good looking dollar store hooker who gets you off automatically in your sleep.


----------



## MrRippedZilla

I originally said that I didn't see the drop going past 30% under any circumstances. I was wrong. The global economic suicide pact that I feared now means a 35% drop is the minimum. How quickly things change. 

The lesson: never underestimate the stupidity of humans. You may think they're idiots, as I do, but rest assured they will prove to be far thicker than you expected. Sigh.


----------



## Iron1

MrRippedZilla said:


> I originally said that I didn't see the drop going past 30% under any circumstances. I was wrong. The global economic suicide pact that I feared now means a 35% drop is the minimum. How quickly things change.
> 
> The lesson: never underestimate the stupidity of humans. You may think they're idiots, as I do, but rest assured they will prove to be far thicker than you expected. Sigh.



So you're telling me to... sell?



I hope I wouldn't need to specifically say I'm being sarcastic but, I'm being sarcastic.


----------



## BrotherJ

I dabble in day trading. These pump n' dumps have been a money making dream these last few weeks - when SPY hits a low load up on calls, when it hits a high load up on puts. Plenty of people making good money on all this volatility, although premiums are insane right now.


----------



## NbleSavage

BrotherJ said:


> I dabble in day trading. These *pump n' dump*s have been a money making dream these last few weeks - when SPY hits a low load up on calls, when it hits a high load up on puts. Plenty of people making good money on all this volatility, although premiums are insane right now.



And here I've learned me dating strategy in high school has a name...


----------



## Jaydub

When amazon climbed over 2k i set my stop market at 2k to sell half my shares. That locked all my gains in plus some. My only regret during this pullback is that I hesitated on pulling the trigger on buying more AMZN. Now it's back up in the 1800 range..  that and netflix..


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Jaydub said:


> When amazon climbed over 2k i set my stop market at 2k to sell half my shares. That locked all my gains in plus some. My only regret during this pullback is that I hesitated on pulling the trigger on buying more AMZN. Now it's back up in the 1800 range..  that and netflix..



Not getting back in yet, but I can see how these companies could fare well during quarantine/downturn.


----------



## CJ

Put in on order for Starbucks yesterday($50.00), didn't get filled, I missed the price by $0.10.

It went up almost 20% since then($59.27 AM) . :32 (7):


----------



## simplesteve

CJ275 said:


> Put in on order for Starbucks yesterday($50.00), didn't get filled, I missed the price by $0.10.
> 
> It went up almost 20% since then($59.27 AM) . :32 (7):




Cedar fair dropped like crazy down to $13 the 52 week high was like $62, they also pay out like $3.75/yr in dividends.  Bought some of that,

Also continue to buy MJ the marijuana ETF as it drops.


----------



## mugzy

Bought GE @ $5.95 yesterday. This would be a good long term HOLD however I will not being buying anything for the long term at this time.


----------



## CJ

Bought Dell at $28 yrste, just sold at $32.  14.3% profit overnight.

I'll get back in after another drop.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I started slowly getting back in over the past month.

I didn't think this would be a quick recovery, but the fed is just pumping so much money into the economy that I don't know that we'll revisit that bottom again from march.


----------



## Amggear11

March was the bottom. Great buying opp. Travel in particular cruise lines are screw for awhile. Stick with tech.


----------



## mugzy

If you can hold it for a couple of months NCLH is cheap at $12.65 today.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I'm too much of a wuss to bet on a cruise line right now Mugz LOL

You think they will get bailed out? I kind of feel like the cruise lines will be the last to get bailouts. Too many essential transportation companies like airlines in line in front of them.


----------



## CJ

I'm with you Cohiba. I'll wait until there's at least a sign of positivity before I'd even think of throwing some cash at the cruise lines.

My buddy was happy when he got in on NCLH at $18. Not so happy now.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I lost some cash betting on cheap stocks that were at all time lows during the commodities slump, in industries that were historically pretty much necessities (coal producers LOLLOLOL)... *"knowing"* that they would come back.

Then they went bankrupt, and I got nothing to show for those stocks.

I'm still a little butthurt by it, can you tell?


----------



## MrRippedZilla

Over the last month I've mostly been taking profits after a nice run. Equities (except the UK) and US bonds have both been very good to me and I expected a W-shaped recovery.

In terms of buys, I'm operating on a super short term level and staying away from traditional equities/bonds. I've opened up a huge position on natural gas (the resource) that is already paying off and I'm bullish on the dollar after it had it's weakest month in a decade. 

I have no intention of buying into the tourism/hospitality sectors.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

mugzy said:


> If you can hold it for a couple of months NCLH is cheap at $12.65 today.



I heard Royal Caribbean popped today so checked out your call... NCLH@ $15.13 buddy! Ride that pony. Stocks only go up these days.


----------



## bigbadjedi93

I’d love to know some good stocks to buy, been buying penny stocks but losing my ass.   Mostly buying at the wrong time when people are dumping in buying ha.


----------



## CJ

bigbadjedi93 said:


> I’d love to know some good stocks to buy, been buying penny stocks but losing my ass.   Mostly buying at the wrong time when people are dumping in buying ha.



Stay away from penny stocks, don't even waste a moment of your time thinking about them. You're not going to get rich by hitting a lottery pick, you'll only lose your money.

They're cheap pieces of junk for a reason. If a regular Joe like you or I starts hearing some chatter about one of them, it's more than likely the old 'Pump and Dump' tactic, and we'll be left holding the bag.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I heard Royal Caribbean popped today so checked out your call... NCLH@ $15.13 buddy! Ride that pony. Stocks only go up these days.



Cruise Lines make me nervous, people don't NEED to have cruises. And they keep pushing back their sail dates. 

I bought into Southwest about a week ago at $32, sitting at $35 right now. It was bouncing up off a support level in pricing, and people are going to need to fly. I chose Southwest over Delta because I think domestic travel will be the first to come back.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

bigbadjedi93 said:


> I’d love to know some good stocks to buy, been buying penny stocks but losing my ass.   Mostly buying at the wrong time when people are dumping in buying ha.



What CJ said... but to add, if you're gonna gamble, do it with something that at least has some intrinsic value so that if you lose, you don't lose everything. Maybe look for some quality small cap stocks if you want something that can make a big move.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> What CJ said... but to add, if you're gonna gamble, do it with something that at least has some intrinsic value so that if you lose, you don't lose everything. Maybe look for some quality small cap stocks if you want something that can make a big move.



If you want to gamble, go to the casino. You have better odds.


----------



## MrRippedZilla

For those who care, I've just closed my position on natural gas as pricing returns to late last years levels. The instability that is sure to come in the months ahead makes betting on a continued demand for natural gas at this price slightly more risky and, frankly, I'd have to be an idiot not to cash out with a 40%+ return. 

Valuable lesson for those new to the markets: take your ****ing profits when you get them.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Just bought some AT&T stock (T). I know they have a lot of outstanding debt. I still feel like they are a safe play, and also their stock price hasn't recovered from March like the rest of the market. Plus you get the 7% dividend.

The chart looks like it's going to make a big move soon. Hope I'm not an idiot. Someone talk me out of buying more.


----------



## Lizard King

CJ275 said:


> Stay away from penny stocks, don't even waste a moment of your time thinking about them. You're not going to get rich by hitting a lottery pick, you'll only lose your money.
> 
> They're cheap pieces of junk for a reason. If a regular Joe like you or I starts hearing some chatter about one of them, it's more than likely the old 'Pump and Dump' tactic, and we'll be left holding the bag.




Just sold one at close to 100% profit today and have done well in the past.


----------



## CJ

Lizard King said:


> Just sold one at close to 100% profit today and have done well in the past.



Touche. 

You beat my 60% on ZM today, so you win. But I freely admit that I got lucky with that earnings destroyer yesterday.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I'll take the 60% ZM over the 100% penny stock remains thank you. You're welcome.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'll take the 60% ZM over the 100% penny stock remains thank you. You're welcome.



I wouldn't!!!  :32 (18):


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> I wouldn't!!!  :32 (18):



If you don't time it perfectly and sell it all you own a pile of dog shit!


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> If you don't time it perfectly and sell it all you own a pile of dog shit!



I just wouldn't have the time necessary to research appropriately, and be able to watch it during the day for when it pops.

If you have the time and know what you're doing, it's probably fine. I just know my limitations in regards to this.


----------



## HH

I think A&D companies will see an increase in stock price across the board after the elections depending on who wins of course. Im also fairly bullish on tech stocks, with all of the M&A activity happening in the sector, I can only see market caps increasing for the time being.


----------



## BrotherJ

I'm still riding my Tesla meme options


----------



## CohibaRobusto

BrotherJ said:


> I'm still riding my Tesla meme options


----------



## CJ

Thank god for Stop Losses!!!  :32 (18):


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I mean we are way overdue for a correction here. To be at all time highs with the economy like it is now is just stupid. JPow will keep his foot on the gas though.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I mean we are way overdue for a correction here. To be at all time highs with the economy like it is now is just stupid. JPow will keep his foot on the gas though.



I'm ok with it. I got stopped out of almost all of my tech positions. Forced profit taking. It was getting kind of silly anyway, harder to find comfortable stop loss points.


----------



## CJ

I did add to my position in Coca Cola though. Roughly $50 has been a resistance level since the Covid drop, and it broke through it, and tested and held it even during the shit show the last few days. Hopefully it's a nice support level now, on the way to $60.

If not, I lose a few %. No big deal, good risk to reward ratio for me.


----------



## CJ

Also have a nice trend line for a second level of support.


----------



## mugzy

I picked up AZUL yesterday. The market looks good today.


----------



## CJ

I've moved back in on NEE and MELI.


----------



## Iron1

I uh, put $50 into VTSAX this week.

#IRAGang


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ, what charting tool is that you're using?


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> CJ, what charting tool is that you're using?



Trading View. 

Free option, just have to X out of a few ads every now and then.


----------



## CJ

This has been one of my big consistent winners this year, got hammered the last couple of days due to a tariff increase on imported solar panels. I got out early with still a huge gain, although a good ding to the profits. Stock got knocked down over 20%, but the demand for solar isn't going away. 

If it can bounce up off its trend/support line, I'm back in. About a 25% upside if it can shrug it off.


----------



## CJ

The NEE and MELI trades last week yielded mixed results. NEE didn't do as I expected, but I still got out with a +1% profit. Still in on MELI, currently up over 16% from my buy in point.

Yesterday I bought in on Wayfair (W), as it bounced off it's support level since the Covid crash. About a 3:1 reward to risk ratio. Also still keeping an eye on SunRun(RUN), as it's tested its support level and held it the last 2 days.


----------



## FlyingPapaya

Speak English


----------



## CJ

FlyingPapaya said:


> Speak English


----------



## Mattyice98

Coming into this late but based on projections (as well as the market being based on 2021 predictions) there should be a reasonable bear market again unless a stimulus is passed which still won’t do enough in total unless it’s larger than what’s currently offered. Best bet always in terms of risk reward is etfs. Also would look into shorting airlines later down the line as well as classic automobile manufacturers. Solar and other renewable energy sources seem to be on the rise especially with a Biden presidency combined with a flip of the senate. Good luck and always manage risk


----------



## Tinbeater36

Bought my first option today. PRTY $2 strike expiring 11/20 at .46.  Up to .55 at the moment. Beginner's luck.


----------



## HollyWoodCole

Idk about you guys but my 401k hit 11% growth over the last calendar year.  I was not expecting that.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

Mattyice98 said:


> Coming into this late but based on projections (as well as the market being based on 2021 predictions) there should be a reasonable bear market again unless a stimulus is passed which still won’t do enough in total unless it’s larger than what’s currently offered. Best bet always in terms of risk reward is etfs. Also would look into shorting airlines later down the line as well as classic automobile manufacturers. Solar and other renewable energy sources seem to be on the rise especially with a Biden presidency combined with a flip of the senate. Good luck and always manage risk



Biden might not make it to Thursday's debate let alone be on the ticket come the 3rd.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

the biggest no brainer of all time was loading up on Ford at 4 bucks a share in mid march.


----------



## CJ

DeplorableCracker said:


> the biggest no brainer of all time was loading up on Ford at 4 bucks a share in mid march.



You're crazy!

That thing has been trending down for like 7 years.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CJ275 said:


> You're crazy!
> 
> That thing has been trending down for like 7 years.



if doubling my money in less than 7 months is crazy then I accept your label


----------



## CJ

DeplorableCracker said:


> if doubling my money in less than 7 months is crazy then I accept your label



No worries, we just have different risk tolerances. I'd also choose companies that were beaten down price wise, but in my eyes had a better recent track record. Like Amazon, Apple, McDonald's, and Nike. 

I just saw a better chance in those companies rebounding.

Congrats on the doubling of your investment though, that's awesome!!!!


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CJ275 said:


> No worries, we just have different risk tolerances. I'd also choose companies that were beaten down price wise, but in my eyes had a better recent track record. Like Amazon, Apple, McDonald's, and Nike.
> 
> I just saw a better chance in those companies rebounding.
> 
> Congrats on the doubling of your investment though, that's awesome!!!!



I hear ya and to be clear, that's play around money. My real money goes into my Vanguard 2045 as well as physical silver and gold.

I also hit some major licks on smaller vaccine and testing companies like Co-Diagnostics (CODX) and Inovio (INO). got in both of those around 3-4 bucks and got out around 20 a few months later.


----------



## CJ

I messed around with a few biotechs, did ok, nowhere even close to your success though!!! The day to day volatility in them was too much for me. 

It's fun though, isn't it? :32 (18):

What're you looking at now? I got into Lowe's at the end of last week, it broke out a price consolidation. Home Depot looks like it could do the same. Those 2 track well together, so if Lowe's continues to climb, I may hope into HD too for a 2 for 1.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CJ275 said:


> I messed around with a few biotechs, did ok, nowhere even close to your success though!!! The day to day volatility in them was too much for me.
> 
> It's fun though, isn't it? :32 (18):
> 
> What're you looking at now? I got into Lowe's at the end of last week, it broke out a price consolidation. Home Depot looks like it could do the same. Those 2 track well together, so if Lowe's continues to climb, I may hope into HD too for a 2 for 1.



yeah man I love playing around with money I've deemed acceptable to lose basically. high risk high reward type shit. I do a lot of crypto stuff as well. 

I don't think you can go wrong with either of those two really at this point.

I've been pretty slammed at work so I haven't had much going on lately other than just sitting on some stuff, but I have been keeping an eye on these companies that just went public in last few months, particularly Unity, Palantir, Snowflake, and Asana.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...-crazy-here-are-the-ipos-to-watch-51598658370


----------



## CJ

Hope you have better luck than me on IPOs. Here's my screw up story... 

I said screw it, I'll try an IPO, I've never bought in on one before. So I bought in on Rocket Mortgage the 1st day. Went up a bunch so I added to it. Bought a 3rd batch later on. 

Forgot to adjust my stop loss share amount as I bought more, so when it dropped, I only got out of 1/3rd of my position. I didn't realize until I was down something like 30%.

Had a few other times I should've gotten out, but didn't.

Now I'm like... Fukk it, guess I'll just hang on to it at this point. Still down about 20%. :32 (18):


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I've made mistakes placing orders before. Once I was trying to buy like $4k worth of SLV for my 401k portfolio and somehow I ended up buying $16k worth. Of course it tanked after that so I was stuck in it. I ended up moving 3/4 of it into a bitcoin ETN when BTC was around $4k and that has paid off nicely.


----------



## Iron1

CJ275 said:


> What're you looking at now? I got into Lowe's at the end of last week, it broke out a price consolidation. Home Depot looks like it could do the same. Those 2 track well together, so if Lowe's continues to climb, I may hope into HD too for a 2 for 1.



HD and Lowes are doing very well. Lots of people getting cheap money from banks who are then building/upgrading homes.


----------



## CJ

Iron1 said:


> HD and Lowes are doing very well. Lots of people getting cheap money from banks who are then building/upgrading homes.



Yes sir. I've been in and out of both since March.


----------



## CJ

Well that Wayfair trade turned against me, stopped out at a -7.5% loss. Larger loss than I usually take, not pleased 

Closed out the MELI trade though at a +20.6% profit. 

You win some, you lose some.


----------



## Beserker

Speaking of lose some.... smart money is on the market to likely crash soon if the Biden/Harris “victory” is upheld.  

I took out at loan on the max amount I could in my 401k Friday before it just disappears.  I dub the coming shitstorm “The Great Repression”

God help us.


----------



## CJ

Beserker said:


> Speaking of lose some.... smart money is on the market to likely crash soon if the Biden/Harris “victory” is upheld.
> 
> I took out at loan on the max amount I could in my 401k Friday before it just disappears.  I dub the coming shitstorm “The Great Repression”
> 
> God help us.



The January Senate races in GA could cause a shitstorm too.


----------



## Goldchester

CohibaRobusto said:


> Anyone here play with stocks or manage their own retirement?
> 
> If so, I hope you're making out ok with the recent Coronovirus related declines.
> 
> I first started investing / saving for retirement right around the time of the 2008 financial collapse. That scared the shit out of me, and I barely had anything saved. From that point on I made a big effort to educate myself about financial things and investing. I had a family to support, and I realized that I couldn't trust anyone but myself to do what I thought best with our money. (There were a lot of portfolio managers and financial advisors that gave bad advice and lost people's money during the collapse).
> 
> I'm doing ok now, and I pulled nearly all of my money in corporate stocks out last fall right at the time of the yield curve inversion. The money I still have invested is mainly in gold ETF's, which have always made up a sizeable defensive part of my portfolio, and some treasury and municipal bond funds that are up right now also because of this madness.
> 
> I'm also a fan of crypto, which will probably put a target on my back if we have any traditional investing guys here.
> 
> So here's my theory on coronovirus and the market. Things are going to keep getting worse for a while. Anywhere from 2+ months of declines. Best case, we get a vaccine to market pretty fast before any bankruptcy contagion starts (2 mos hypothesis) and things start recovering quickly.
> 
> Worst case, bankruptcies start, a lending weakness emerges (similar to the mortgage crisis in 2008), and contagion spreads kicking off a global financial crisis. The fed and central banks are going to try to head it off by printing money and negative interest rates and it will be a long slow (years) recovery. I'm not ready to predict all-out global financial collapse yet though.
> 
> I'm keeping my cash on the sidelines until I feel better about which way things are going. I manage my family's money, and I run all of my big decisions by my wife before I pull the trigger. 2 reasons for that:
> 
> 1, it keeps me honest and from acting on dumb ideas (and believe me I get a lot of those), because I don't want to run a dumbass idea by her.
> 
> 2. it keeps her involved so she knows what's going on, and if things go South and I **** up, well there's "hey, I ran this by you and you signed off on it!" LOL
> 
> I think Gold has a bright future right now, that's my only positive stock prediction. I also think the long term BTC charts look good.



Wow we can talk about all types of gains on this forum, stonk season is in full effect


----------



## CJ

Anybody else take advantage of the gift that BJ's stock gave us today?

Stellar earnings, soundly beat revenue and profits, opens up down over 6%.

Great company, continues to do well, and will this upcoming quarter as well, with the increase in Covid lockdowns. Sure, I'll buy a great company at a discount. 

Up almost 7% since the opening.


----------



## xyokoma

Anyone plays around with Invest 212 on here?


----------



## CJ

xyokoma said:


> Anyone plays around with Invest 212 on here?



I had never heard of it. Googled it, looks like UK version of Robinhood.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CJ275 said:


> I had never heard of it. Googled it, looks like UK version of Robinhood.



yeah i use Robinhood for play around money


----------



## xyokoma

I havent used anything else so cant comment but made a few hundred quid from it. Have only ever put in a few hundred here and there. Oil and Tesla have been my biggest earners.


----------



## xyokoma

Sold oil for 38% profit and Tesla above 30% too. Then rebought more. Has honestly been a great lockdown hobby. :32 (18):


----------



## CJ

xyokoma said:


> Sold oil for 38% profit and Tesla above 30% too. Then rebought more. Has honestly been a great lockdown hobby. :32 (18):



Nice!!!

Yeah, it's been a great opportunity. Glad you took advantage. It's not always like this though! :32 (18):


----------



## xyokoma

CJ275 said:


> Nice!!!
> 
> Yeah, it's been a great opportunity. Glad you took advantage. It's not always like this though! :32 (18):



Yeah, not gonna get another shot like this! And hopefully because **** pandemics lol!!!
Partner has done even better than me but he had a lot more free capital to put in to begin with.


----------



## CJ

xyokoma said:


> Yeah, not gonna get another shot like this! And hopefully because **** pandemics lol!!!
> Partner has done even better than me but he had a lot more free capital to put in to begin with.



Don't you dare let him win!  :32 (18):


----------



## bigbadjedi93

I’ve got a small amount, and when I say small like 78 bucks, in Tesla that I’m going to ride out.  New to stocks but put 100 bucks on there a few months and basically about even.   A guy I work with says invest in the dividend stocks, but that’s about all I know.


----------



## CJ

bigbadjedi93 said:


> I’ve got a small amount, and when I say small like 78 bucks, in Tesla that I’m going to ride out.  New to stocks but put 100 bucks on there a few months and basically about even.   A guy I work with says invest in the dividend stocks, but that’s about all I know.



If you want a "set it and forget it" type of investment, pick something that you believe will change the future, like Robotics/Automation, Renewable Energy, or FinTech,, and purchase a decent ETF in that sector.

It'll get you decently broad exposure in that area. Maybe pair it with a Total Market Index find. 

Could do a lot worse.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

This just caught my eye because I am all into reading about the vaccines, but now I'm thinking about putting some cash in Moderna

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/11/29/3-key-advantages-moderna-holds-pfizer-and-astra-z/


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> This just caught my eye because I am all into reading about the vaccines, but now I'm thinking about putting some cash in Moderna
> 
> https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/11/29/3-key-advantages-moderna-holds-pfizer-and-astra-z/



I have a friend who works at Amgen, her husband works at Moderna. She won't give me SHIT for insider information!!!  :32 (18):

I've been in an out of MRNA, also Crispr and Fate. Biotechs are too volatile for my liking. I did alright in them, but I went ETF route for long term.

She has always said to invest in Moderna though. She wouldn't tell me otherwise if she thought it wasn't a good idea.


----------



## Miamiking

If I had the time I would be trying to figure out a way to profit off of the fear porn on the media constantly , basically day trading and options trading, but I just don't even have the time in the day to do all that.


----------



## MrInsensitive

I play with crypto. I just started investing in several different coins. I enjoy watching it grow. It’s slow but it’s also fun. I know nothing, I’ve been watching some YouTube videos on day trading (apparently the riskiest dumbest thing to do when you’re poor)... I need to read this whol pie thread over. I don’t have 401k. No annuity no nothing. I work construction. No insurance, just job to job mostly cash. 
I most certainly need help In this demographic.


----------



## dreamscraper

Day trading and options trading are a complete waste of time. The only way to make money as a single person is to pretend to teach day trading and options trading to suckers.

I found this last week and wrote on my whiteboard "Too Much Liquidity Chasing Too Few Assets"

I am viewing things as the sell button does not exist. You want assets and not liquidity. We have created this weird situation that the only risk is not owning enough stock. Everything is setup for an absolute all time bubble this decade.  In a certain light, stocks are extremely under valued because everything else is so worthless when the entire global system is completely flooded with liquidity.

While the Fed has added such an absurd amount of liquidity to the system this year I had completely forgot about basically every other country doing the same thing. It is a gross situation that will have real political consequences as financial inequality goes to a completely other level this decade.

This is such a boring situation compared to the early 2000s that you had to trade to make anything. This is much harder though because you will have to buy high. If you look at historical P/E or whatever, everything is going to seem overpriced.

Just hit the buy button then go do something else. Watch the market as little as possible.


----------



## John Ziegler

anyone following this deal (redit stock market coup gamestop army) 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ma...etter-to-the-reddit-gamestop-army-11611871658


----------



## MrInsensitive

Cohiba, what’s the biggest difference you see between traditional stocks and crypto Markets? 
im asking for myself because I’m ignorant. I recently started investing into crypto and I’m super interested. I’ve been throwing all my loose change into my Coinbase.


----------



## JuiceTrain

MrInsensitive said:


> Cohiba, what’s the biggest difference you see between traditional stocks and crypto Markets?
> im asking for myself because I’m ignorant. I recently started investing into crypto and I’m super interested. I’ve been throwing all my loose change into my Coinbase.



I remember this one guy I used to work with going on about this crypto called Electroneum (ETN) 

He was so passionate about it and how it was the wave of the future....he had a lot of money invested in it maybe over 10k or more I can't remember but he believed in it more than a devoted Christian believes in god

Anyways it was less than a penny but he was so adamant that this stock was gonna boom and the amount of shares he had was gonna make him a millionaire 

Long story short there was a spefic website he used to invest in that certain coin....one week it crashed and a majority of the users lost everything they had...him being one of them


----------



## bvs

I invested im doge coin (crypro-currency) and it went up 550% last night, i made more money in my sleep than ill earn at work this whole week!!!


----------



## MrInsensitive

I have been into Bitcoin, tezos, cosmos & compound. The reason I’ve been limited to these coins is because they’re the only ones that Coinbase has offered learning video lessons on. So I thought it to be rather foolish investing into a coin I didn’t know anything about or how it worked. That being said, how does the good old fashioned stock market work? What makes it tick? What does it mean when it crashes? Do all of them crash or just certain companies stock? 
im pretty pissed off with crypto right now, I started with less than $100 and In my first couple of days, flipping between them and trading, I made a 200% profit. I got side tracked and left them alone for a few days. I checked it just the other day and I dropped from almost 3k down to 2460. I lost about 25% of my profits over the last few months. It’s frustrating and I’m starting to believe I just don’t understand it.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

MrInsensitive said:


> Cohiba, what’s the biggest difference you see between traditional stocks and crypto Markets?
> im asking for myself because I’m ignorant. I recently started investing into crypto and I’m super interested. I’ve been throwing all my loose change into my Coinbase.



https://www.ugbodybuilding.com/threads/34604-Cryptocurrency-Bitcoin-Chat?highlight=bitcoin

Read up on this thread, and I'll post some more after I service wifey here


----------



## John Ziegler

MrInsensitive said:


> Cohiba, what’s the biggest difference you see between traditional stocks and crypto Markets?
> im asking for myself because I’m ignorant. I recently started investing into crypto and I’m super interested. I’ve been throwing all my loose change into my Coinbase.



Yo, this threads been dead as a door nail for 2 months. 

I ask a question & you MrInsensitive prick

all of a sudden are here completely ignore my question & ask your own

"are you for real"

"ya thats a beautiful thing but its not my thing"

Jk :32 (18):


----------



## John Ziegler

"what about my thing"


----------



## Trump

I opened an account last week for something to do with 500 quid my friend who is into all this said don’t bother with Chinese company’s like alibaba cause there owner is missing or something. So I put it all on alibaba first time I ever invested few days later the guy popped up I sold them after that for a 250 quid profit


----------



## John Ziegler

at anyrate the gamestop deal was a jackpot for whoever was in on it & got in & out fast enough 

seems like this threads for fukfaces 

L8


----------



## CohibaRobusto

John Ziegler said:


> Yo, this threads been dead as a door nail for 2 months.
> 
> I ask a question & you MrInsensitive prick
> 
> all of a sudden are here completely ignore my question & ask your own



There's a whole 'nother thread about your qst Zeig:

https://www.ugbodybuilding.com/threads/35364-r-wallstreetbets


----------



## John Ziegler

CohibaRobusto said:


> There's a whole 'nother thread about your qst Zeig:
> 
> https://www.ugbodybuilding.com/threads/35364-r-wallstreetbets



Thank you, I had searched gamestop stockmarket  it didnt show up for whatever reason


----------



## CohibaRobusto

MrInsensitive said:


> Cohiba, what’s the biggest difference you see between traditional stocks and crypto Markets?
> im asking for myself because I’m ignorant. I recently started investing into crypto and I’m super interested. I’ve been throwing all my loose change into my Coinbase.



Be super careful messing with crypto, all I really put my money in is Bitcoin or Eth. Only money you are prepared to lose until you learn more about them. Even then I'd recommend it as a small part of your portfolio, as a hedge like gold.

My best advice would be to start educating yourself about investing and asset allocation, diversification.

There are a lot of guys on here who are really knowledgeable and could give you some tips on where to start learning if you post a thread on it.

Here's what I did, because nobody taught me about this stuff growing up.

1. Started listening to financial news all the time (bloomberg, cnbc), and I had no idea what they were talking about in the beginning. But I started looking up info on things I didn't understand, and eventually I started catching on. Bonus is that it is really bland and won't stress you out like mainstream news.

2. Started reading financial news and stock information on sites like Seeking Alpha, Forbes, etc. Join reddit and follow r/investing, r/wallstreetbets and anything else related (there is a good bitcoin subreddit too).

3. Set up a cash or ira account on a trading platform like etrade, ameritrade...some will let you have a practice account with play money. In the beginning, though it is probably safest to just put the majority of your real money in an S&P 500 ETF like SPY and let it sit. You can hedge that with a smaller portion of your money in a gold ETF like IAU or GLD.

4. When you're ready to start trading or managing your portfolio, read up on chart analysis some, that will help you time things a little better.

Just tread slowly and carefully. Ask questions, read a lot. It's your money. I don't trust other people managing my money, that's why I do all this myself.


----------



## CJ

Be careful with crypto, because it's just pure speculation. It doesn't produce goods or services, it can't be used for anything, hell there's even a risk of loss because you can't even hold it in your hand.

Don't invest anything you aren't 100% willing to lose, because there's nothing that drives the price besides pure speculation. You've all seen the crazy rides up and down it has had.


----------



## Adrenolin

CJ275 said:


> Be careful with crypto, because it's just pure speculation. It doesn't produce goods or services, it can't be used for anything, hell there's even a risk of loss because you can't even hold it in your hand.
> 
> Don't invest anything you aren't 100% willing to lose, because there's nothing that drives the price besides pure speculation. You've all seen the crazy rides up and down it has had.


It's definitely very volatile and high risk.. but with high risk usually comes with the potential for the biggest returns. I've made some big returns with bitcoin and still kickin myself in the ass for selling at 4k. Just made a bit yesterday with doge.

I think I saw bitcoin went up $6k this morning from $32-$38. If I ever saw bitcoin drop back to 10-15k I'd buy back 2-3 coins for a long term hold.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Adrenolin said:


> I think I saw bitcoin went up $6k this morning from $32-$38. If I ever saw bitcoin drop back to 10-15k I'd buy back 2-3 coins for a long term hold.



I'm probably going to buy some more BTC also if it pulls back to that same price range. I'm pretty much just a holder the past few years.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> Be careful with crypto, because it's just pure speculation. It doesn't produce goods or services, it can't be used for anything, hell there's even a risk of loss because you can't even hold it in your hand.



CJ, this is just factually inaccurate. There are a lot of services and apps that run on blockchains like ethereum now. The practical use for Bitcoin is what it was made for, it's great for making low fee, secure financial transfers. It is used quite a bit for this. 

No, there is no physical coin you can hold in your hand, however if you understand how it works, part of it's value is that it is a decentralized token that is not controlled by any government authority, meaning any BTC you own is much more yours and harder to take away than many other forms of money (like dollars and gold). Banks cannot freeze your bitcoin if you hold them in your own digital wallet.

Here is a list of some apps that run on the ethereum blockchain:
https://consensys.net/blog/news/90-ethereum-apps-you-can-use-right-now/

A lot of the "altcoins" out there were produced for specific, real world blockchain applications. Many are actually in use today. 

Take Golem for example (https://golem.network/), this a blockchain apllication designed to provide a way for users to allocate computer resources to complicated tasks and use a token as the means of exchanging work for reward.

So while yes, a lot of people speculate on these tokens, the true value is tied to their usefulness in real world applications, not the speculative frenzies.


----------



## NbleSavage

Fookin' ell...and this is why I used to fight fer a living. My brain just isn't wired to process the way some of yours do. 

I feel like I went to uni just now (I mean that as a compliment).


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> CJ, this is just factually inaccurate. There are a lot of services and apps that run on blockchains like ethereum now. The practical use for Bitcoin is what it was made for, it's great for making low fee, secure financial transfers. It is used quite a bit for this.
> 
> No, there is no physical coin you can hold in your hand, however if you understand how it works, part of it's value is that it is a decentralized token that is not controlled by any government authority, meaning any BTC you own is much more yours and harder to take away than many other forms of money (like dollars and gold). Banks cannot freeze your bitcoin if you hold them in your own digital wallet.
> 
> Here is a list of some apps that run on the ethereum blockchain:
> https://consensys.net/blog/news/90-ethereum-apps-you-can-use-right-now/
> 
> A lot of the "altcoins" out there were produced for specific, real world blockchain applications. Many are actually in use today.
> 
> Take Golem for example (https://golem.network/), this a blockchain apllication designed to provide a way for users to allocate computer resources to complicated tasks and use a token as the means of exchanging work for reward.
> 
> So while yes, a lot of people speculate on these tokens, the true value is tied to their usefulness in real world applications, not the speculative frenzies.



You're not understanding what I'm saying. It is pure speculation because it's price is purely based upon what someone will pay. There's no earnings reports on it, it's not used in any industry for any purpose, it's not even a physical product, and at any point the gov't can declare it illegal, any any transactions using it to be unlawful, and if that were to happen, it'd crash. Pure speculation. 

What causes these ±20% swings we see? Absolutely nothing. No new product release, no earnings jump, just speculation. 
It's a lottery ticket. 

It could go to $0 and cease to be a thing at any time. That's a very real risk. Many cryptos have already failed.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> You're not understanding what I'm saying. It is pure speculation because it's price is purely based upon what someone will pay.


This I agree with as far as the speculative buying goes. There are a few layers to this though.



> There's no earnings reports on it, it's not used in any industry for any purpose, it's not even a physical product,



Correct, there are no earnings reports, but many are used in different industries for many different purposes, that is what I was trying to lay out in my previous post. ETH is the best example of this. Most of the "altcoins" have very specific usage that represents technological breakthoughs in their industry. It's not a physical product, it's more like software, which does have value.



> and at any point the gov't can declare it illegal, any any transactions using it to be unlawful, and if that were to happen, it'd crash. Pure speculation.



Yeah well, the government can put anyone out of business really. I agree. Bitcoin and Eth are very indpendent of any one country, but some type of mass banning by the US, China, Europe would be devastating for the price speculation side of things.

The network would continue to exist and be used though.



> What causes these ±20% swings we see? Absolutely nothing. No new product release, no earnings jump, just speculation.
> It's a lottery ticket.



Adoption, speculative trading, and usage. In the case of Bitcoin a lot of people and institutions are adopting it as a store of value and a hedge. This isn't new really, it's just gaining more acceptance by large players in the financial industry. 

Take Bakkt for instance (https://www.bakkt.com/about-us), which was started by ICE, the same people who own the New York Stock Exchange. It's basically a trading platform and custody firm for institutional investors to manage cryptocurrencies. 

When you have large players stepping in like this, to use a technology that is still in its infancy/early adoption phase, big price swings will happen.

This is kind of another reason I don't think the government will ever ban bitcoin. Just my opinion, but there are just too many big players involved now with lots of money in the game. Congressman own bitcoin as well. It's kind of like banning gold, it's been done before, it could happen again, but highly unlikely in my opinion.



> It could go to $0 and cease to be a thing at any time. That's a very real risk. Many cryptos have already failed.



Many altcoins have failed. There was and still is a ton of shilling going on. The altcoin market is like the online AAS market in some ways. Shills make these things sound like the next great blockchain product, when in fact they were just set up to gain speculative trading action. So yeah, there is a lot of garbage out there.

I'll never say never, but the risk of BTC or ETH going to zero is pretty slim in my opinion.


----------



## CJ

Two things stand out from what you said....

1) You say it's a store of value. Absolutey not!!! The very last thing you look for in a store or value is the wild volatility like you find in Bitcoin price, especially when it can happen intra day... Or overnight for that matter. You can wake up to a 30% drop in your "store of value". 

And it's not a hedge, like a commodity is, where if the value of the $USD goes down, you still have the commodity which can be used as food, fuel, etc... Or a foreign asset, who's value rises when the $USD falls. Bitcoin isn't really even a thing, it was invented. It has no use besides being a bitcoin. 

2) The gov't is greedy, they want every penny they can get. All the bitcoin transactions that are untaxed is an untapped revenue stream, which in my opinion the gov't will want at some point. I would highly suspect there will be done type of regulation in the future, which will more than likely drop its value. The gov't dies NOT allow any currency to be adopted besides the $USD. Individual States used to have there own currencies, but the Fed gov't put an end to that, centralized it. Bitcoin is a risk to the Fed monopoly on money printing. They get too big for their britches, the gov't is going to crack down.


----------



## CJ

And for the record, I'm not anti Bitcoin. I have no dog in the fight, I don't own any, but I'll trade anything. I'm just being realistic about what it is, and reality is 99% of the people buying bitcoin are buying it as a lottery ticket. 

If I recall correctly, awhile back on this forum, someone was asking about how to get in on it. I suggested at the time to buy in when it passed its old high back in the low $20k's and use that as a stop loss. Looking at the chart right now though... I'm not touching that mess. Coin flip at best.


----------



## notsoswoleCPA

CJ275 said:


> Two things stand out from what you said....
> 
> 1) You say it's a store of value. Absolutey not!!! The very last thing you look for in a store or value is the wild volatility like you find in Bitcoin price, especially when it can happen intra day... Or overnight for that matter. You can wake up to a 30% drop in your "store of value".
> 
> And it's not a hedge, like a commodity is, where if the value of the $USD goes down, you still have the commodity which can be used as food, fuel, etc... Or a foreign asset, who's value rises when the $USD falls. Bitcoin isn't really even a thing, it was invented. It has no use besides being a bitcoin.
> 
> 2) The gov't is greedy, they want every penny they can get. All the bitcoin transactions that are untaxed is an untapped revenue stream, which in my opinion the gov't will want at some point. I would highly suspect there will be done type of regulation in the future, which will more than likely drop its value. The gov't dies NOT allow any currency to be adopted besides the $USD. Individual States used to have there own currencies, but the Fed gov't put an end to that, centralized it. Bitcoin is a risk to the Fed monopoly on money printing. They get too big for their britches, the gov't is going to crack down.



Oh, they do want it...  Every individual tax return I prepare I have to answer the question as to if the client trades in crypto currency.  Sadly, mine don't tell me squat, and I have no way to prove if they are lying to me or not.  It's not like there is a Bitcoin 1099 given out where I can pull a transcript...


----------



## DieYoungStrong

The US economy is based on being the reserve currency of the world. Once we are no longer the reserve currency - collapse. The gov't does not like threats to it's status there. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is an enemy of the gov't.


----------



## Boogieman

I am fairly versed in per say a 401K, but I am interested in doing some trading on Robinhood...feel like a noob but I want to get my feet wet a bit...I dont even know where to start or what to buy. Any advice from you masters here!?!?


----------



## CJ

Boogieman said:


> I am fairly versed in per say a 401K, but I am interested in doing some trading on Robinhood...feel like a noob but I want to get my feet wet a bit...I dont even know where to start or what to buy. Any advice from you masters here!?!?



I'm a technical trader, so I'm it's simplest terns, I look for patterns to identify a good entry point, a logical place to get out of a trade(stop loss) if it doesn't go my way, and to assess the risk vs reward (I want the potential profit to be at least 2x what I'm risking). Here's a trade I got in on about a week to show you what I mean... 





The blue lines are the trend lines, the channel its been trading within. I wait for it to come close to the bottom, bounce up off it, then I buy in hoping to capture the upside to the top of the range. 

If it turns against me and drops down below that bottom blue line, I'm probably out. I set my stop loss around the red line though, so if shit hits the fan when I'm away from my computer, it sells automatically, protecting me. I manage the risk, so my losses are pretty small. And losses do happen, A LOT. 

The green line is the potential profit target, but hopefully it goes up even further to the upper blue line.

The yellow line is where I took some partial profits, pretty much guaranteeing me a profitable trade if it reverses course. 

I bought in in the $46's. I believe I set my initial stop loss at $44. Target is $56+. So my risk to reward to the trade is 5+ to 1. So I could be wrong on that trade 4 out of 5 times and still break even, hypothetically. I try to get the odds in my favor as best as I can, by managing the risk.


----------



## CJ

Apple is the most recent one I added to my watch list. Just had a banging earnings report, and it's chart is setting up nicely. I am NOT saying to buy it however, I'm only showing you what I'm looking at. 





Don't always look for the home runs. Singles and doubles add up quite nicely.


----------



## notsoswoleCPA

Boogieman said:


> I am fairly versed in per say a 401K, but I am interested in doing some trading on Robinhood...feel like a noob but I want to get my feet wet a bit...I dont even know where to start or what to buy. Any advice from you masters here!?!?



After that bullshit Robinhood pulled this week, I'll NEVER use those assholes for trading.  I'm about to start a trading account for one of my businesses as soon as I get paid from one of my clients...  Ahh, the never ending saga of waiting on money for work done months ago...


----------



## CohibaRobusto

notsoswoleCPA said:


> After that bullshit Robinhood pulled this week, I'll NEVER use those assholes for trading.  I'm about to start a trading account for one of my businesses as soon as I get paid from one of my clients...  Ahh, the never ending saga of waiting on money for work done months ago...



Robinhood has been shafting the wallstreetbets guys for years too. I'm surprised any of them still use the app!

I like Etrade. Their app is not so great, but  browser version is good. I'm sure there are stories, but I haven't heard as many complaints about etrade.


----------



## JuiceTrain

Boogieman said:


> I am fairly versed in per say a 401K, but I am interested in doing some trading on Robinhood...feel like a noob but I want to get my feet wet a bit...I dont even know where to start or what to buy. Any advice from you masters here!?!?





CohibaRobusto said:


> Robinhood has been shafting the wallstreetbets guys for years too. I'm surprised any of them still use the app!
> 
> I like Etrade. Their app is not so great, but  browser version is good. I'm sure there are stories, but I haven't heard as many complaints about etrade.





notsoswoleCPA said:


> After that bullshit Robinhood pulled this week, I'll NEVER use those assholes for trading.  I'm about to start a trading account for one of my businesses as soon as I get paid from one of my clients...  Ahh, the never ending saga of waiting on money for work done months ago...



Fuk robinhood,
My feet are extremely wet with these brokerage accounts but from recent findings Fidelity, Schawb, and E-Trade haven't done any type of restricted trading since this gme incident.

I went with fidelity because it was more appealing.


----------



## Joliver

CohibaRobusto said:


> Robinhood has been shafting the wallstreetbets guys for years too. I'm surprised any of them still use the app!
> 
> I like Etrade. Their app is not so great, but  browser version is good. I'm sure there are stories, but I haven't heard as many complaints about etrade.



Fidelity. The only company that didn't restrict trading last week when the hedge funds were taking a pounding. 

GME. Buy it. Only buy what you can afford to lose. Fidelity will let you buy a fractional shares I believe...but toss $10 bucks at a worthless stock to sink the people that are crying because they never lose. 

You may get lucky and get some bucks. 260% short on the company...so at some point, melvin capital is going to have to buy it from somebody. Be that hero.

This isn't investment advice...I'm not an investment advisor. I'm a fool. A damn fool. But this isn't an an investment, it's an opportunity to stick it to the man who stuck it to the whole world in 2008...and then made you pay for it--literally. 

For any would be stock pro responders crying about fundamentals and teacups vs volume and irrational markets...I don't care.


----------



## Boogieman

CJ275 said:


> I'm a technical trader, so I'm it's simplest terns, I look for patterns to identify a good entry point, a logical place to get out of a trade(stop loss) if it doesn't go my way, and to assess the risk vs reward (I want the potential profit to be at least 2x what I'm risking). Here's a trade I got in on about a week to show you what I mean...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The blue lines are the trend lines, the channel its been trading within. I wait for it to come close to the bottom, bounce up off it, then I buy in hoping to capture the upside to the top of the range.
> 
> If it turns against me and drops down below that bottom blue line, I'm probably out. I set my stop loss around the red line though, so if shit hits the fan when I'm away from my computer, it sells automatically, protecting me. I manage the risk, so my losses are pretty small. And losses do happen, A LOT.
> 
> The green line is the potential profit target, but hopefully it goes up even further to the upper blue line.
> 
> The yellow line is where I took some partial profits, pretty much guaranteeing me a profitable trade if it reverses course.
> 
> I bought in in the $46's. I believe I set my initial stop loss at $44. Target is $56+. So my risk to reward to the trade is 5+ to 1. So I could be wrong on that trade 4 out of 5 times and still break even, hypothetically. I try to get the odds in my favor as best as I can, by managing the risk.



Seems like a lot going on there CJ, how has it been working out? Are you making money? Is the reward worth the headache? Also what are you using to come up with those charts?

And if not Robinhood has been ****ing people over...what is a comparable cost alternative? Some of those trading fees seem a little up there cost wise. 

I just dont know enough about this side of the market. I will probably lose my ass....


----------



## CJ

I'm also at Fidelity. All my trades are free too, no complaints.


----------



## Boogieman

Ok Robinhood can suck it, I will find a better company to work with!


----------



## CJ

Boogieman said:


> Seems like a lot going on there CJ, how has it been working out? Are you making money? Is the reward worth the headache? Also what are you using to come up with those charts?
> 
> And if not Robinhood has been ****ing people over...what is a comparable cost alternative? Some of those trading fees seem a little up there cost wise.
> 
> I just dont know enough about this side of the market. I will probably lose my ass....



Yes, I'm profitable and I get a few % points above the S&P and Nasdaq, which I use as benchmarks. It doesn't sound like a lot, but it adds up. And as with anything else, I'm getting better with experience. I've had my share of "what were you thinking" moments, and trying to be too cute and it bit me in the ass. 

It's worth it to me, because I enjoy it. But others might hate it and be better off in a set it and forget it index fund. It's a personal choice. 

That chart is Trading View, but there are many like it. 

When you start, emotions WILL come into play. Try not to let it happen, but it will. Look at is as merely numbers and charts. To start, keep all your trades roughly the same size, so you don't have ones that are "more important" so to speak. 

Have a short memory, but learn from what you did right/wrong. 

Manage your risk. Don't get blown up by a bad trade or two, and don't try to make up for a bad trade. It happened, it's in the past, it's over.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> Two things stand out from what you said....
> 
> 1) You say it's a store of value. Absolutey not!!! The very last thing you look for in a store or value is the wild volatility like you find in Bitcoin price, especially when it can happen intra day... Or overnight for that matter. You can wake up to a 30% drop in your "store of value".



Ok, so I never claimed price stability was a positive store of value metric for Bitcoin, and I'd never argue that. It is a different kind of store of value though. Let's have a look at some different stores of value...

USD - the good old US dollar. Inherently stable yet subject to inflation. Your money in USD slowly loses value over time. The federal reserve aims for a 2% inflation rate. The printing press has a lot of ink though. I try to keep as little money as possible in USD during "ok" times.

Gold - One of my personal favorites. Limited supply, something the human race has always valued, easy to own and trade in an ETF. It's a good hedge because it tends to be counter-inflationary, and it does well usually during tough times for the stock market. Intra-day price swings can be as high as 3-5% at times, but it usually stays between 1-2%.

Bitcoin - this is a completely different animal. Very little price stability. If you want price stability, stay out. This is why I don't tell people to buy bitcoin. I'm not trying to sell it to anyone. I'm just trying to educate here. There are people that bought in at $20k in 2016 and lost more than 50% of their value in a months time. BTC was in a speculative frenzy at the time.

There is a limited number of BTC that will ever become available. Due to its usage, people (literally) losing bitcoin, and people buying and holding "as a store of value or hedge" even though you may not agree with that, it is what they are doing, tends to drive the price up over time. If you spend some time looking at the BTC charts (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin) you will notice that the the bottom trend line has continued to rise over time.

As more people adopt and use, buy and hold, the price will continue to go up and should stabilize more over time due to the sheer size of the market.

The last time I bought BTC was when it was around $10k-12k. I've always tried to stay around the bottom trend line, and it has paid off for me as a store of value. If I had wanted to sell at $40k, I would have profited nicely.



CJ275 said:


> And it's not a hedge, like a commodity is, where if the value of the $USD goes down, you still have the commodity which can be used as food, fuel, etc... Or a foreign asset, who's value rises when the $USD falls. Bitcoin isn't really even a thing, it was invented. It has no use besides being a bitcoin.



 I agree, it's not that type of a hedge, it's only a hedge in the sense that it isn't tied to a lot of the traditional market forces.



CJ275 said:


> 2) The gov't is greedy, they want every penny they can get. All the bitcoin transactions that are untaxed is an untapped revenue stream, which in my opinion the gov't will want at some point. I would highly suspect there will be done type of regulation in the future, which will more than likely drop its value. The gov't dies NOT allow any currency to be adopted besides the $USD. Individual States used to have there own currencies, but the Fed gov't put an end to that, centralized it. Bitcoin is a risk to the Fed monopoly on money printing. They get too big for their britches, the gov't is going to crack down.



BTC transactions are taxed just like regular USD transactions. Any merchant that offers to sell you something in BTC is supposed to charge sales tax on it just like they would in USD. In which case, the sales tax is due in USD unless the Government entity accepts BTC (which a few do now: https://www.govtech.com/policy/Two-Governments-Charge-Ahead-with-Bitcoin-Payments.html).

Money made from trading virtual currencies is also taxed. And the IRS has a set of guidelines for the use and taxing of virtual currencies (https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/virtual-currencies). Basically the IRS treats it as an asset and taxes you on a cost basis if you profit from it. Also see their FAQ. The form 1040 is where you are supposed to report this.

Yes, Bitcoin is a risk to the fed monopoly on money printing, in a similar way that gold is a risk. However I'm posting this to show that there has been some adoption on the state and federal level to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency.

In fact as recently as this month, the OCC has provided guidance to US banks that allows them to hold and use cryptocurrencies for the first time ever. So think about, Capital One, Wells Fargo, etc now have permission to use crypto.

I believe the two can coexist - USD and BTC, with BTC functioning more as an asset class. I think USD is going to eventually go blockchain digital. The other thing that makes me think this, is the fact that BTC can be audited by the IRS. Anyone evading taxes can easily be caught in an audit because BTC transactions are on a public blockchain. Granted the blockchain doesn't contain personal data on its users, but all the IRS needs to know is your wallet address in order to follow the money.




CJ275 said:


> And for the record, I'm not anti Bitcoin. I have no dog in the fight, I don't own any, but I'll trade anything. I'm just being realistic about what it is, and reality is 99% of the people buying bitcoin are buying it as a lottery ticket.



Yeah, and I'm not trying to sell it either. In fact, I wouldn't tell anyone to buy right now at the current price. I just think this is a good topic that not a lot of people understand, and it's good to clarify things.



notsoswoleCPA said:


> Oh, they do want it...  Every individual tax return I prepare I have to answer the question as to if the client trades in crypto currency.  Sadly, mine don't tell me squat, and I have no way to prove if they are lying to me or not.  It's not like there is a Bitcoin 1099 given out where I can pull a transcript...



For a while Coinbase was issuing 1099's to customers who made over a certain threshold, but apparently there was a problem with the cost basis calculations they were using, and the practice was discontinued mostly.

I'd be willing to bet that we see this again though as most crypto exchanges that function in the USA are adopting more stringent know your customer rules and attempting to stay out of trouble with the SEC. I think it's just a matter of time before we get more advanced IRS reporting systems for cryptocurrency.


----------



## CJ

And all I'm doing is pointing out the risks of Bitcoin, every one of which is valid.

And I couldn't possibly disagree with your definition  of Store Of Value more. Price unpredictability is basically the exact opposite of what a store of value is.


----------



## CJ

Boogieman said:


> I just dont know enough about this side of the market. I will probably lose my ass....



Here's how I started out, to prevent blowing up my capital. I'll use round numbers, just for the ease of the math... 

Say you open an account with $10,000. Limit yourself to 10 positions max, each trade roughly $1,000. 

If you limit yourself to a 10% loss max per trade (too high for me, but again... easy math), then you're only risking 1% of your total money per trade. You do something dumb, you only lose ~1%. You're still in the game.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> And all I'm doing is pointing out the risks of Bitcoin, every one of which is valid.
> 
> And I couldn't possibly disagree with your definition  of Store Of Value more. Price unpredictability is basically the exact opposite of what a store of value is.



CJ, just set aside $1000 in a Coinbase account damnit.

When I tell you to "BUY!" Hold your godamn nose and click the "Buy" button. :32 (18):

You can thank me later.


----------



## Boogieman

Think I will go with TD Ameritrade, any thoughts on that guys?


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> CJ, just set aside $1000 in a Coinbase account damnit.
> 
> When I tell you to "BUY!" Hold your godamn nose and click the "Buy" button. :32 (18):
> 
> You can thank me later.



I thought about it when it surpassed its old high, I really did. If I could've purchased it directly through Fidelity, I probably would've bought a little. But... I would've sold it a long time ago.


----------



## CJ

Boogieman said:


> Think I will go with TD Ameritrade, any thoughts on that guys?



They're a good choice.


----------



## JuiceTrain

Boogieman said:


> Think I will go with TD Ameritrade, any thoughts on that guys?





CJ275 said:


> They're a good choice.



FWIW Schawb purchased TD awhile ago and will integrate TDs brokerage dealers over to their's.

Kind of like when Wells Fargo acquisitioned Wachovia.

I'm sure starting with TD will be fine but eventually it'll all turn over to charles schawb.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> And I couldn't possibly disagree with your definition  of Store Of Value more. Price unpredictability is basically the exact opposite of what a store of value is.



https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tesla-buys-1-5-billion-in-bitcoin-11612791688



> Tesla disclosed its bitcoin purchase in its latest annual report, saying the move aims to “diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity.” Tesla said a board committee had approved changes to company rules on investments, adding that it can also invest cash in gold bullion and gold exchange-traded funds among other assets.



Sorry, had to do it


----------



## DeplorableCracker

I don’t buy BTC, I mine crypto and get paid out in BTC. My gear is old, but for the price of about 10 bucks a day in electric I get about 25 dollars worth of BTC deposited in my wallet nightly. It adds up fairly quick and I do nothing but monitor them.

3 s9j’s(SHA 256)
1 T15(SHA 256)
1 L3+(Scrypt)

had to run a dedicated 30 amp to 240v circuit to power em though.

paid about 1200 bucks for all of em.

once BTC hits 80 I’ll be makin 50 bucks a day or so.

as soon as apple and some of these other big corps jump in....boom...100 grand by the end of the year.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

If anyones is interested let me know. I know a few legitimate brokers selling decent to expensive as **** miners. Lots of scammers out there beware.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tesla-buys-1-5-billion-in-bitcoin-11612791688
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry, had to do it



I believe you're actually making my point on speculative investment vs store of value.

Again, Bitcoin is incredibly volatile. It can, and has, gone ±20% in a single day. With Elon declaring that Tesla purchased some, people SPECULATED that the value will rise, and bought in and drove the price up. And it's retreated about 9% since the high yesterday. Not exactly a safe haven. 

Investors could become millionaires.... Or lose it all. Not a store of value.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

DeplorableCracker said:


> as soon as apple and some of these other big corps jump in....boom...100 grand by the end of the year.


I'm so stoked about all this adoption man. If or should I say "when" it goes to 150k, I'll be a bitcoin millionaire. No lambos for me though, I'm only spending it on smart shit like hookers.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> .... Or lose it all..



Really? when was the last time it went to 0?

Or say for instance you bought in at the top 4 years ago at 20k and lost 50% overnight. If those people could hold, by now they would have doubled their money.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'm so stoked about all this adoption man. If or should I say "when" it goes to 150k, I'll be a bitcoin millionaire. No lambos for me though, I'm only spending it on smart shit like hookers.



I mean at least buy one cuz.......lol


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> Really? when was the last time it went to 0?
> 
> Or say for instance you bought in at the top 4 years ago at 20k and lost 50% overnight. If those people could hold, by now they would have doubled their money.



But that's not the definition of Store Of Value. That's SPECULATION. If I went to a financial advisor and told him to put my money in a good store of value, and he chose bitcoin, his ass would be fired. 

It doesn't even matter, it's just verbage. Whatever.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

DeplorableCracker said:


> If anyones is interested let me know. I know a few legitimate brokers selling decent to expensive as **** miners. Lots of scammers out there beware.



I've always been somewhat interested in mining. Was concerned about the noise though mainly if operating from home.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CohibaRobusto said:


> I've always been somewhat interested in mining. Was concerned about the noise though mainly if operating from home.



if you put new fans on them it’s significantly less noisy but yeah...noisy and hot..i have em in the basement and put shrouds on them and piped em into my ductwork to the mudroom where it gets cold as hell so its actually heating the house a bit. Have to vent them outside in the summer.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CJ275 said:


> But that's not the definition of Store Of Value. That's SPECULATION. If I went to a financial advisor and told him to put my money in a good store of value, and he chose bitcoin, his ass would be fired.
> 
> It doesn't even matter, it's just verbage. Whatever.



My dad lost millions in ‘08 in what was supposed to be a “safe” bet. To be honest we’re sitting on a real shaky house of cards as we speak. I’m not sure my 401k feels any better than my crypto portfolio ATM.

Risk is everywhere. Lottery tickets are for meth heads. Crypto is an emerging market with nearly an unlimited upside and there are only 8 companies on the planet with a bigger market cap.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

Side note: all of my free time has been towards developing a commision free stock trading app. Building it with React’s expo/metro bundle using the alpaca API...gonna pitch it to Elon to replace Robin hood.

it’s called Stonkify......lol


----------



## TeddyBear

Buy marijuana ETFs.
I have YOLO, MJ, and KUSH.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

Lots of people making millions off pot right now. I have dome SNDL but thsts about it. I’m still balls deep in GME at the moment.....lol


----------



## CJ

dted23 said:


> Buy marijuana ETFs.
> I have YOLO, MJ, and KUSH.



Also a speculative asset class... Which I happen to be in on. :32 (20):


----------



## DeplorableCracker

No idea why I’m posting twice.....wtf


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I'm too scared to put a bunch of money in pot stocks. I did buy a little last year, but they haven't done much. Canopy Growth was my best pick.

Hope you exit GME ok bro.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'm too scared to put a bunch of money in pot stocks. I did buy a little last year, but they haven't done much. Canopy Growth was my best pick.
> 
> Hope you exit GME ok bro.



They've collectively basically doubled in the last week...


----------



## CohibaRobusto

DeplorableCracker said:


> My dad lost millions in ‘08 in what was supposed to be a “safe” bet. To be honest we’re sitting on a real shaky house of cards as we speak. I’m not sure my 401k feels any better than my crypto portfolio ATM.
> 
> Risk is everywhere. Lottery tickets are for meth heads. Crypto is an emerging market with nearly an unlimited upside and there are only 8 companies on the planet with a bigger market cap.



'08 taught me a lot. I'm really glad to have lived to see that, and I started educating myself about money around that time too. 

Everyone cares about money, not everyone takes the time to truly learn about it. I was tired of living paycheck to paycheck, worrying about paying my bills.

Big lessons from '08, diversify, asset allocation,  the feds will rescue the big banks, probably not you though.


----------



## Iron1

My girl has very tepidly entered the market just last week and it's pretty cute. We've been talking about smarter ways to handle money that to put it away in a bank and she finally decided to test the waters. 

She's not a gambler by any means so long term investments with safe returns are what I'm trying to get her into. She's only put $100 in to test the waters. It's kind of comical but she's bought exactly 1 share of VT that's she's holding onto like it's her baby. She's gained $5 since she got into that position and while its not a lot, it's so much more than she could get with that same $100 through a bank.  

There's a whole financial education I'm trying to do with her and this one of the steps. Next will be shifting some longer term savings into securities.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'm too scared to put a bunch of money in pot stocks. I did buy a little last year, but they haven't done much. Canopy Growth was my best pick.
> 
> Hope you exit GME ok bro.



Finra dropped the short% last night and there still at 80ish so its a waiting game at this point. The networks like CNBC that were saying they covered their shorts like a week and a half ago should have their fuking broadcasting licenses pulled for this shit. Blatant fukin lies to help their hedge fund buddies. In my opinion they are bleeding out and when the Failure To Delivers start piling up who knows whats gonna happen.

end of the day i never play with money I’m not fine with losing. Feel bad for those that sunk their life savings and rent/bill money etc. into it at the top.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

Iron1 said:


> My girl has very tepidly entered the market just last week and it's pretty cute. We've been talking about smarter ways to handle money that to put it away in a bank and she finally decided to test the waters.
> 
> She's not a gambler by any means so long term investments with safe returns are what I'm trying to get her into. She's only put $100 in to test the waters. It's kind of comical but she's bought exactly 1 share of VT that's she's holding onto like it's her baby. She's gained $5 since she got into that position and while its not a lot, it's so much more than she could get with that same $100 through a bank.
> 
> There's a whole financial education I'm trying to do with her and this one of the steps. Next will be shifting some longer term savings into securities.



if its play around money and she has time to watch the candles throughout the day. Can make gains quicker and easier in crypto on like Coinbase Pro with simple limit buys/sells. Good way to learn the basics quicker as well before moving on to options and margins and shit. Probably not telling you anything you don’t already know but just throwing it out there. Plus it’s more fun. One day in the crypto market is like 2 weeks on the Nasdaq......lol


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> They've collectively basically doubled in the last week...



Oh I meant the ones *I bought* haven't done much lol.


----------



## Iron1

DeplorableCracker said:


> if its play around money and she has time to watch the candles throughout the day. Can make gains quicker and easier in crypto on like Coinbase Pro with simple limit buys/sells. Good way to learn the basics quicker as well before moving on to options and margins and shit. Probably not telling you anything you don’t already know but just throwing it out there. Plus it’s more fun. One day in the crypto market is like 2 weeks on the Nasdaq......lol



It's not and she doesn't have the risk tolerance for trading right now. Maybe some day but definitely not at this moment. It was hard enough to get her to trust that Vanguard wasn't the name of a shady guy behind 7/11 that would take her money and run for the Mexican border.

As she becomes more confident in understanding paper gains/losses, the terminology, how the market moves and most importantly money management, we'll branch out into more hands-on and speculative things. Ideally, long term I'd like to get her into the mentality of having a little bit of money in liquid savings with the majority of what's left split between an IRA/Brokerage account for consistent growth with a small percentage set aside for those boom-or-bust YOLO's. There is a lot that I plan on teaching her but I think the first step is building confidence through some safe-for-grandma plays that put a couple bills in her account. 

All of her money is scared money right now and we both know how that goes.

I have a feeling I'm soon going to be explaining how short term paper losses are a great opportunity to buy the dip.


----------



## #TheMatrix

What's the verdict.  Gains?


----------



## Iron1

#TheMatrix said:


> What's the verdict.  Gains?



Gains? Sir, this is a bread line.


----------



## JackDMegalomaniac

Iron, maybe you can find a playlist of financial education videos. Being educated about something, takes away alot of the angst. 

I took advantage of all the economics, personal finance, and investments classes in my school. I can fill out taxes, loan applications, and other things like that.


----------



## DeplorableCracker

Iron1 said:


> It's not and she doesn't have the risk tolerance for trading right now. Maybe some day but definitely not at this moment. It was hard enough to get her to trust that Vanguard wasn't the name of a shady guy behind 7/11 that would take her money and run for the Mexican border.
> 
> As she becomes more confident in understanding paper gains/losses, the terminology, how the market moves and most importantly money management, we'll branch out into more hands-on and speculative things. Ideally, long term I'd like to get her into the mentality of having a little bit of money in liquid savings with the majority of what's left split between an IRA/Brokerage account for consistent growth with a small percentage set aside for those boom-or-bust YOLO's. There is a lot that I plan on teaching her but I think the first step is building confidence through some safe-for-grandma plays that put a couple bills in her account.
> 
> All of her money is scared money right now and we both know how that goes.
> 
> I have a feeling I'm soon going to be explaining how short term paper losses are a great opportunity to buy the dip.



oh hey btw, i mentioned earlier I’m working in an app that ises the Alpaca API ( what Robinhood, WeBull etc. use), but you can go to there and create a free paper trading account and play around with fake money in real time. 

https://alpaca.markets/


----------



## mugzy

If CCL drops below $18 I'm going to add a huge position.


----------



## CJ

My 1099 is 32 pages long this year.

I'm just going to assume it's all accurate. :32 (18):


----------



## CJ

Campbell's Soup (CPB).

It's been trading within a clearly defined 20% range for about a year. Gapped down to the base of the range a few days ago. Not a sexy growth name, but it'll do!!!

Also has a >3% dividend.


----------



## smguffer

Not financial advice. im not financial advisor.. but a speculative option could be buying an AMZN call option (or just buying amazon shares/fractional shares if your platform allows) after we figure out how deep this current dip will go.

Call option closer to the strike price for lower risk/reward, farther out for higher risk/reward

Expiration maybe July 23 or July 30th... So that the stock has an opportunity to celebrating him successfully going to space on July 20th. 

TSLA celebrated SpaceX's early significant achievement's .. so im speculating Amazon could do the same for Blue Origin. that the speculation.

The 2 biggest risks are that the date gets pushed back for some reason, or that the mission itself goes bad.. That's where money in options can be lost, but if you have the shares, it shouldnt bother you to hold a company like Amazon for a few months(or even years) if you have to.

If the date holds, and the speculation is correct, im sure the stock will rallly even before lift off.. so there could be an opportunity to collect profits even before the mission is successful.

Right now im just waiting to see how far this dip goes. Looking for a good entry.


----------



## smguffer

CJ probably feeling pretty good about NKE right now. 

did you take profits?


----------



## CJ

smguffer said:


> CJ probably feeling pretty good about NKE right now.
> 
> did you take profits?



Not yet, set my stop loss for $150. I may take some off the table before the close though.

Truthfully, I kinda don't like these huge gap ups. It's like.... What do I do?!?  :32 (18):

At least it's a good problem.


----------



## CJ

I bought into Caterpillar yesterday. After the ~15% pullback, it quickly regained it's trend line. Hoping that it'll hold, and with the infrastructure deal looking promising, that it'll quickly get back up to its high and beyond.


----------



## smguffer

smart play.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> I bought into Caterpillar yesterday. After the ~15% pullback, it quickly regained it's trend line. Hoping that it'll hold, and with the infrastructure deal looking promising, that it'll quickly get back up to its high and beyond.



That looks like a good one dude.


----------



## Zadek

I have a some in cat and Verizon.
Was looking into building a nice dividend portfolio a while back. Need to get serious about this again.


----------



## smguffer

QuantumScape (QS) forming a really nice cup and handle on the 1 month chart. 

Buying some call options a month out. Hoping for a big move in the next 5-8 trading days.


----------



## smguffer

The scary part about buying a call option (or put option) during consolidation is that any move in any direction drastically changes the price of the option. It goes from Low implied volatility to high implied volatility.

So it's a high risk/high reward scenario, or at least a volatile ride. Not uncommon to see big red before you see big green.. if you're willing to weather the storm and have conviction in the final direction they typically pay out big.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Just recently sold all of my IIM holdings when they went above $17. This is a closed end muni fund that pays a nice dividend that is tax free from federal income taxes. It rarely has gone this high in the past, and it never stays this high for long. 

I am going to wait until it gets cheaper then buy back into it again.

In the meantime, does anyone have any recommendations for a relatively safe (like blue chip, large utility type or bond fund) that pays a good dividend (looking for 4% or higher)?

I'm watching Verizon, but it still looks like it is trending downward.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> Just recently sold all of my IIM holdings when they went above $17. This is a closed end muni fund that pays a nice dividend that is tax free from federal income taxes. It rarely has gone this high in the past, and it never stays this high for long.
> 
> I am going to wait until it gets cheaper then buy back into it again.
> 
> In the meantime, does anyone have any recommendations for a relatively safe (like blue chip, large utility type or bond fund) that pays a good dividend (looking for 4% or higher)?
> 
> I'm watching Verizon, but it still looks like it is trending downward.


It's only has a 2.9% yield, but VYM(Vanguard High Dividend ETF) has a TOTAL return of over 12% average the last 10 years, and it's all blue chips up top. 

Yield isn't what you'd like it to be, but it has a good overall performance risk:reward.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

That looks really good. Thanks for putting it on my radar.

I ended up putting the money into IAU (Gold ETF) for the time being because I feel like gold is near a short term bottom and will start trending up again.


----------



## smguffer

im in JNUG for my gold ETF.


----------



## mugzy

I just sold 2,400 Shares of JETS. It has a ton of upside however I'm not the buy and hold type. I picked up almost $3 share.


----------



## CJ

mugzy said:


> I just sold 2,400 Shares of JETS. It has a ton of upside however I'm not the buy and hold type. I picked up almost $3 share.


I bought 250 yesterday.... You win!!!  😂

Also a little PINS, RIO, and FSLY


----------



## mugzy

I sold 4,000 shares of ASTSW today @ 4.42. Looking to get back in at 4.05


----------



## mugzy

Big day today....


----------



## Send0

Looks like the market is going on sale today. Good opportunities.


----------



## Dungeon Dweller

Word is the land prices in China are an issue, leading to worldwide jitters on the futures.


China’s Evergrande default risk weighs on global markets — here’s why


----------



## Send0

Dungeon Dweller said:


> Word is the land prices in China are an issue, leading to worldwide jitters on the futures.
> 
> 
> China’s Evergrande default risk weighs on global markets — here’s why


Yup... I think there will be more weak hands getting out over the next couple of days. I'm going to wait to see what bargains there are at that point.


----------



## mugzy

@CJ275 @CohibaRobusto what do you have hot for today? I grabbed a large position in SPCE @19.41


----------



## CJ

mugzy said:


> @CJ275 @CohibaRobusto what do you have hot for today? I grabbed a large position in SPCE @19.41


I think Regeneron(REGN) is setting up its base after a big pullback. I see continued demand for their Covid therapeutic drug, it has FDA emergengy use authorization, and the US gov't said they'll pick up the tab for patients.

It's 20%+ upside back to its high a month ago, only about a 2-3% risk if its new base holds. And it has a single digit PE Ratio.

More of a swing trade.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

mugzy said:


> @CJ275 @CohibaRobusto what do you have hot for today? I grabbed a large position in SPCE @19.41


I don't do many short term moves usually. Last thing I bought was $30k of SPY when it had bottomed around sep 30th.

I hope to do more short term trading like you and CJ do one day I just can't make the time to keep up with it right now.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I don't do many short term moves usually. Last thing I bought was $30k of SPY when it had bottomed around sep 30th.
> 
> I hope to do more short term trading like you and CJ do one day I just can't make the time to keep up with it right now.


I'm trending your way @CohibaRobusto . I find that I have no time, I'm missing solid buy in opportunities, I'm about ready to just throw it all into index funds and some thematic ETFs and let it do it's thing.

I'm livid about Cloudflare right now. I've made some decent returns off it, got stopped out when it turned a couple of weeks ago. Had every intention of buying back in once it bottomed out, but didn't look for a bit because I was busy, the fukker is up 50% the last 2 weeks!!!  😡😡😡


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> I'm trending your way @CohibaRobusto . I find that I have no time, I'm missing solid buy in opportunities, I'm about ready to just throw it all into index funds and some thematic ETFs and let it do it's thing.
> 
> I'm livid about Cloudflare right now. I've made some decent returns off it, got stopped out when it turned a couple of weeks ago. Had every intention of buying back in once it bottomed out, but didn't look for a bit because I was busy, the fukker is up 50% the last 2 weeks!!!  😡😡😡


Damn.

I'm pissed at AT&T. I have put a lot of money in them for an income stock over the past few years, and they decide to change their business model, lower the dividend, and fuck all investors for the first time in 100 years. Naturally right after I get in 🙄


----------



## CJ

Started a position in SNAP today. A 27% drop after earnings due to what I believe/hope is overreaction to the talk of Apples ios opt out concern.

I'm giving it a short leash, set a stop loss at $53, hoping it's found it's bottom over these last few days.


----------



## CJ

And that Regeneron trade from last week looks like it's going to turn out well. Good, because I've had a few dogs lately.


----------



## Bobbyloads

Look at you butt juice fiends all into stocks and shit.


----------



## CJ

Keeping a close eye on PayPal(PYPL). Approaching a nice support level with a potential 35+% upside. 

Solid growing company, long history of positive earnings increases. 

Earnings next week, and it's beat the last 5 times. Could it be the catalyst to help bounce off of support?


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ275 said:


> Keeping a close eye on PayPal(PYPL). Approaching a nice support level with a potential 35+% upside.
> 
> Solid growing company, long history of positive earnings increases.
> 
> Earnings next week, and it's beat the last 5 times. Could it be the catalyst to help bounce off of support?
> 
> View attachment 14998


I'm more optimistic since they backed out of buying Pinterest. That seemed like it was going to be a dumb deal.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'm more optimistic since they backed out of buying Pinterest. That seemed like it was going to be a dumb deal.


And it caused a huge drop in the stock price when it was announced, so you'd think since they've abandoned that idea, the stock price would come up a bit. 

I see this as close to a can't miss as you can get, as long as patience is had to not buy too soon...which I tend to do. 🤣


----------



## j2048b

i just wish i knew half of the fucken spnglish going on here..... i get notified of this thread because i love to see ways to grow my money but have no idea wtf u'all are even sayin half the damn time anyways...i just need to find a local to invest for me so i can stop tryin to make my brain hurt even more...


----------



## CJ

j2048b said:


> i just wish i knew half of the fucken spnglish going on here..... i get notified of this thread because i love to see ways to grow my money but have no idea wtf u'all are even sayin half the damn time anyways...i just need to find a local to invest for me so i can stop tryin to make my brain hurt even more...


My completely non professional advice so don't listen to me consult your own investment advisor....

Invest half your stock allocation in SPY and half in QQQJ. SPY is just the S&P 500 ETF, and QQQJ is a mid cap technology/NASDAQ index ETF, the stocks that could be the next big tech companies.

The SPY is basically "the market" and QQQJ gives you nice growth potential.

Set it and forget it for years.


----------



## j2048b

CJ275 said:


> My completely non professional advice so don't listen to me consult your own investment advisor....
> 
> Invest half your stock allocation in SPY and half in QQQJ. SPY is just the S&P 500 ETF, and QQQJ is a mid cap technology/NASDAQ index fund, the stocks that could be the next big tech companies.
> 
> The SPY is basically "the market" and QQQJ could give you a nice growth potential.
> 
> Set it and forget it for years.


sounds good, thanks, i just dont have 10k or what ever to drop into something ya know, it seems like in order to make money u already have to have it, or know how to make the moves...ill take a look at ur non professional (good) advice tho, and appreciate it.


----------



## CJ

j2048b said:


> sounds good, thanks, i just dont have 10k or what ever to drop into something ya know, it seems like in order to make money u already have to have it, or know how to make the moves...ill take a look at ur non professional (good) advice tho, and appreciate it.


Buy a little every week/month. It's called dollar cost averaging, it's a perfectly fine way to do it. Zero stress, zero time researching, easiest way to do it.

And think about doing it in an IRA or 401k for the tax benefits, if the money isn't needed until further down the road.


----------



## Test_subject

j2048b said:


> i just wish i knew half of the fucken spnglish going on here..... i get notified of this thread because i love to see ways to grow my money but have no idea wtf u'all are even sayin half the damn time anyways...i just need to find a local to invest for me so i can stop tryin to make my brain hurt even more...


ETFs my man.  Invesco QQQ is a fantastic one.

Just set some money aside each pay and buy when you can.


----------



## blundig

Strictly a diversified array of mutual funds for me. Three different growth funds, three different value funds, three different small cap, three different junk bond funds, etc. I diversify within types of funds to reduce fund manager performance or replacement risk.


----------



## CJ

blundig said:


> Strictly a diversified array of mutual funds for me. Three different growth funds, three different value funds, three different small cap, three different junk bond funds, etc. I diversify within types of funds to reduce fund manager performance or replacement risk.


Be careful though. If you get TOO diversified, then you basically have an index fund, but are paying the higher expenses of active management.


----------



## Sven Northman

I started day trading last year and finally took it seriously after studying here and there over the past 6 years. Its not for everyone!

Today the big runner was CAR. Avis reported earnings and it went from 170's premarket to $540 per share! Spacs have been running lately too. I see you use Trading View @CJ275 I just bought a Pro subscription so I can use my Scripts to Trade Volume Forecast. Its paid for itself already! How long have you been trading?


----------



## CJ

Sven Northman said:


> I started day trading last year and finally took it seriously after studying here and there over the past 6 years. Its not for everyone!
> 
> Today the big runner was CAR. Avis reported earnings and it went from 170's premarket to $540 per share! Spacs have been running lately too. I see you use Trading View @CJ275 I just bought a Pro subscription so I can use my Scripts to Trade Volume Forecast. Its paid for itself already! How long have you been trading?


Only a couple of years, so I'm still learning. I swing trade though, I do NOT have day trading in me. I don't have the time nor the balls for that!!!  🤣


----------



## blundig

CJ275 said:


> Be careful though. If you get TOO diversified, then you basically have an index fund, but are paying the higher expenses of active management.


Good point!


----------



## Sven Northman

CJ275 said:


> Only a couple of years, so I'm still learning. I swing trade though, I do NOT have day trading in me. I don't have the time nor the balls for that!!!  🤣


Right on. I hear you man. Day trading takes alot of time to learn. I'm fortunate to have a great group I follow and learn from. But in the end its all about finding your own strategy and process. And most importantly in day trading: risk management. Those WSB guys and their HODLS. Lol. Good luck you bag holders!

I have a few setups I look for in pre-market and if I dont see them forming at the belll I dont take the trade. I've learned a ton this year and its all starting to click. Just in time for some market momentum we've been seeing since the Trump Pump on DWAC and DWACW. I love this shit!


----------



## Sven Northman

CJ275 said:


> Only a couple of years, so I'm still learning. I swing trade though, I do NOT have day trading in me. I don't have the time nor the balls for that!!!  🤣


Time Bohen from Stocks To Trade has some great videos on Swing Trading. Right now I'm watching alot of Sean Dekmar YouTube vids. I really like his style and approach to trading.


----------



## Sven Northman

Not stock advice but keep an eye on electric vehicle sector. Tesla went crazy last week and still squeeezing shorts today. LCID is a watch and Amazon backed Rivian motors goes public next week. I'd expect shares to be around $62.


----------



## CJ

Sven Northman said:


> Right on. I hear you man. Day trading takes alot of time to learn. I'm fortunate to have a great group I follow and learn from. But in the end its all about finding your own strategy and process. And most importantly in day trading: risk management. Those WSB guys and their HODLS. Lol. Good luck you bag holders!
> 
> I have a few setups I look for in pre-market and if I dont see them forming at the belll I dont take the trade. I've learned a ton this year and its all starting to click. Just in time for some market momentum we've been seeing since the Trump Pump on DWAC and DWACW. I love this shit!


Risk management is my 100% top priority. Glad that I learned that right from the start. 

I stopped keeping track, but when I was I was about 50/50 winners to losers. But my losers were all 2-4% losses, while my winners averaged around 10%.

Probably keep my stop losses a bit too tight though, as it's bittem me in the ass a few times.... but also saved me a few times too. 😁


----------



## CJ

CJ275 said:


> I think Regeneron(REGN) is setting up its base after a big pullback. I see continued demand for their Covid therapeutic drug, it has FDA emergengy use authorization, and the US gov't said they'll pick up the tab for patients.
> 
> It's 20%+ upside back to its high a month ago, only about a 2-3% risk if its new base holds. And it has a single digit PE Ratio.
> 
> More of a swing trade.


Well ain't that a bitch.

I'm up about 20% in the two weeks since I bought it, then Pfizer had to go and announce their new Covid treatment drug. 

Down 7% premarket today.


----------



## Samp3i

I wish I had the time to daytrade. I don't, so I just buy ETF and be happy with my average 8% yearly (this year 28% lol) and then I speculate on crypto prefer to spend my time there right now.


----------



## dirtys1x

I trade futures on crypto to make most of my living


----------



## Test_subject

Samp3i said:


> I wish I had the time to daytrade. I don't, so I just buy ETF and be happy with my average 8% yearly (this year 28% lol) and then I speculate on crypto prefer to spend my time there right now.


The vast majority of day traders lose money. It’s pretty tough to make a long term go with it because leveraging your positions will bite you in the ass eventually.

ETFs are your best bet for a balance between long term sustainability and profit, IMO.


----------



## Samp3i

Test_subject said:


> The vast majority of day traders lose money. It’s pretty tough to make a long term go with it because leveraging your positions will bite you in the ass eventually.
> 
> ETFs are your best bet for a balance between long term sustainability and profit, IMO.


Sure that's why I don't daytrade, by statistics seems like 85% of the day trader lose money in the long run, or even more, so I don't think I'll be able to be in the top percentile and I don't have the time anyway. Still if I can manage 8% for 20 years I'll have 1,4milion dollar at 50 years old waiting for me to spend them 😂 

It's enough to me.


----------



## mugzy

Keep an eye on Lockheed Martin long term.


----------



## Send0

Thanks, long term plays are all I seem to have time for lately. I'm probably about >90% long term, and <10% swing.


----------



## Sven Northman

Send0 said:


> Thanks, long term plays are all I seem to have time for lately. I'm probably about >90% long term, and <10% swing.


Long term plays this week only. Looking for breaks above previous resistance.

LCID
BBBY


----------



## viperman

I retired at 31 due to trading, and still actively trade most of the time.


----------



## CJ

Probably a little overzealous, but I bought 75 shares of PYPL yesterday. I probably fukked up, but I'm giving it a short leash. Hoping it holds $200 today. 🤞🤞

Also picked up 25 of V just before the close yesterday on the pullback. I think it's a good value, dipping my toes in right now. 

Also a long time holder of U, so I added to my position after hours yesterday at a 9% discount. Great earnings report, they revised guidance upwards, and bought a company which will help them going forward.


----------



## CJ

Well that U buy was a home run. Up 16% on it 30 mins in. Dumb luck, but I'll take it.


----------



## CJ

Keeping an eye on CrowdStrike. Big drop today due to an analyst downgrade, but it's a top cybersecurity company, and the demand for that isn't going away anytime soon.

It's approaching it's long term trend line dating back to the Covid crash. If it hits and bounces, I'll take a crack at it.


----------



## mugzy

Are you buying or selling today?

Is today a just the market reacting to news or is there a large pullback to follow?


----------



## Samp3i

mugzy said:


> Are you buying or selling today?
> 
> Is today a just the market reacting to news or is there a large pullback to follow?


no one knows, probably just market reacting to covid19 news etc.
A nice pullback was needed, I'm buying. Not selling for the next 20 years


----------



## Send0

mugzy said:


> Are you buying or selling today?
> 
> Is today a just the market reacting to news or is there a large pullback to follow?


I'll probably make a few small buys; I'll take a few easy points gained for when the Q4 financials are released next year.

If there's a larger pull back then I'll just average down at that time.


----------



## CJ

Stopped out of GM, so took my profits from there and swung it all over to Visa.

Keeping an eye on Disney, waiting for it to bottom then buying, loading up.


----------



## CJ

Wednesday I bought a bit of Square, and I also dipped my toes in on Teladoc, Mercado Libre, Snap, and CrowdStrike.


----------



## Tazz

mugzy said:


> Are you buying or selling today?
> 
> Is today a just the market reacting to news or is there a large pullback to follow?



There will be a large pullback soon. 

The market is unhealthy, take a look at the charts right before the great depression, and look at it now. Line them up layered into 1 chart. Everything’s on thin ice… including the housing market.

Also check out the USDX.

bubble bubble bubble


----------



## flenser

Anyone else buying BTC today?


----------



## Send0

flenser said:


> Anyone else buying BTC today?


I bought $2k worth. Hoping for that 10-15% bounce.


----------



## flenser

Send0 said:


> I bought $2k worth. Hoping for that 10-15% bounce.


TBH I'm hoping it gets crushed one more time. I was caught unprepared and couldn't get enough funds transferred to buy as much as I wanted.


----------



## Send0

flenser said:


> TBH I'm hoping it gets crushed one more time. I was caught unprepared and couldn't get enough funds transferred to buy as much as I wanted.


Well thanks for that 😂. If it drops then I'll just average down, not a big deal.


----------



## flenser

Send0 said:


> Well thanks for that 😂. If it drops then I'll just average down, not a big deal.


From what I could tell, all the panic selling is done. So yeah, not that likely I'll get to buy more at a lower price. But I am an optimist : )


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> I bought $2k worth. Hoping for that 10-15% bounce.



13k incoming. XRP $12. Bitcoins run is over. Alt-szn time now


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> 13k incoming. XRP $12. Bitcoins run is over. Alt-szn time now


I hold plenty of alt coins too. Also, XRP will not go to $12. Especially with it's shady history. Im surprised it's still traded on multiple exchanges.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> I hold plenty of alt coins too. Also, XRP will not go to $12. Especially with it's shady history. Im surprised it's still traded on multiple exchanges.



We’ll see about that. Pumps the hardest, and the fastest. Look at 2013 and 2017 bull runs and who pumped the hardest and fastest, and the ONLY crypto in the industry that has the potential to obtain clarity in terms of security/not from outcome of SEC case. I been following whole case and listening in each court date, the SEC is losing, badly, very desperate. 

Investing in something that’s at it’s all time high is just a rookie move, something dipping from its all time high to just another all time high from the current market cycle, is not a dip, just a retracement. 

Buying any crypto right now that’s the highest it’s been in the whole time crypto has been invented isn’t smart investing, examples such as bitcoin, ethereum already peaked out and had their run. 

Alt coins didn’t yet, besides a few like solana etc. 

Buy low, sell high. Buying bitcoin at anything over 19k, your buying highs


----------



## Tazz

Bitcoin is done, to ever see 2x you’d have to hit 100k…

For XRP to hit 2x you’d have to hit $1.7… It’s at .85, it’s 2017 bull run all time high was $4. 

Put that in perspective, mind you, XRP ran last in 2017, and again, the fastest and hardest run of all of crypto, 2013 as-well.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> We’ll see about that. Pumps the hardest, and the fastest. Look at 2013 and 2017 bull runs and who pumped the hardest and fastest, and the ONLY crypto in the industry that has the potential to obtain clarity in terms of security/not from outcome of SEC case. I been following whole case and listening in each court date, the SEC is losing, badly, very desperate.
> 
> Investing in something that’s at it’s all time high is just a rookie move, something dipping from its all time high to just another all time high from the current market cycle, is not a dip, just a retracement.
> 
> Buying any crypto right now that’s the highest it’s been in the whole time crypto has been invented isn’t smart investing, examples such as bitcoin, ethereum already peaked out and had their run.
> 
> Alt coins didn’t yet, besides a few like solana etc.
> 
> Buy low, sell high. Buying bitcoin at anything over 19k, your buying highs


🙄


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


>



Just consider lowering your portfolio balance in bitcoin and transferring it into some ALT’s that didn’t hit their highs yet that they hit in 2017. 

Even a portion. Of course, take it with a grain of salt.

Really comes down to opinion vs opinion.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> Just consider lowering your portfolio balance in bitcoin and transferring it into some ALT’s that didn’t hit their highs yet that they hit in 2017.
> 
> Even a portion. Of course, take it with a grain of salt.
> 
> Really comes down to opinion vs opinion.


I've been doing this longer than you. No need for you to worry about my portfolio, but thanks.


----------



## flenser

Tazz said:


> We’ll see about that. Pumps the hardest, and the fastest. Look at 2013 and 2017 bull runs and who pumped the hardest and fastest, and the ONLY crypto in the industry that has the potential to obtain clarity in terms of security/not from outcome of SEC case. I been following whole case and listening in each court date, the SEC is losing, badly, very desperate.
> 
> Investing in something that’s at it’s all time high is just a rookie move, something dipping from its all time high to just another all time high from the market cycle, is not a dip.


I dunno, I bought some BTC when it was at it's all time high of around $3K, most I ever paid before today. It's an inflation hedge for me, same as gold and silver. There are better markets for trading moon shots.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> I've been doing this longer than you. No need for you to worry about my portfolio, but thanks.



Oooof, defensive. I been doing it 12 years and made a living off it, and travel the world on a monthly basis. I’m willing to PM you my cold wallet portfolio balance screenshot, i think then you’d take my opinion serious..


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> I dunno, I bought some BTC when it was at it's all time high of around $3K, most I ever paid before today. It's an inflation hedge for me, same as gold and silver. There are better markets for trading moon shots.



The ATH of 3k in 2019? That wasn’t an ATH, 19-20k was the ATH from 2017 bull run. 

Or if 3k from prior 2017, damn good on you! That’s a sick play!


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> Oooof, defensive. I been doing it 12 years and made a living off it, and travel the world on a monthly basis. I’m willing to PM you my cold wallet portfolio balance screenshot, i think then you’d take my opinion serious..


That's lovely.. have a good day.


----------



## Tazz

But goodluck @Send0 . See you in about a month with BTC @13-25k, and alt’s explosive for a few weeks before their dip into another 4 year bear market.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> But goodluck @Send0 . See you in about a month with BTC @13-25k, and alt’s explosive for a few weeks before their dip into another 4 year bear market.


Why are you so aggressive about this? You reminded me why I don't like talking with you.

Trust me, I'm far better off than you are. I'm not repping for a company, my time is worth more than that. Anything I do in crypto now is just for grins. I'm effectively retired and just let the interest grow.

Go flex your e-peen to someone else.


----------



## flenser

Tazz said:


> The ATH of 3k in 2019? That wasn’t an ATH, 19-20k was the ATH from 2017 bull run.
> 
> Or if 3k from prior 2017, damn good on you! That’s a sick play!


It was pre 2017, and I wish I could say it was other than luck. I needed coins to purchase something, and bought far more than I needed.


----------



## flenser

Send0 said:


> Why are you so aggressive about this? You reminded me why I don't like talking with you.
> 
> Trust me, I'm far better off than you are. I'm not repping for a company, my time is worth more than that. Anything I do in crypto now is just for grins. I'm effectively retired and just let the interest grow.
> 
> Go flex your e-peen to someone else.


I prefer people to give their opinions with force, actually, especially when it comes to technical topics.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> Why are you so aggressive about this? You reminded me why I don't like talking with you.
> 
> Trust me, I'm far better off than you are. I'm not repping for a company, my time is worth more than that. Anything I do in crypto now is just for grins. I'm effectively retired and just let the interest grow.
> 
> Go flex your e-peen to someone else.



Me? I was giving my opinion. Evenly openly stating it’s “opinion vs opinion”, you began to become aggressive based off a simple forums topic. I see zero aggression on my end here, I even wished you goodluck. Not sure what you’re seeing is so aggressive. 

I did nothing but provide facts, i was came at with “i been doing this longer than you” “don’t need your help”… so defensive.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> Me? I was giving my opinion. Evenly openly stating it’s “opinion vs opinion”, you began to become aggressive based off a simple forums topic. I see zero aggression on my end here, I even wished you goodluck. Not sure what you’re seeing is so aggressive.
> 
> I did nothing but provide facts, i was came at with “i been doing this longer than you” “don’t need your help”… so defensive.


I didn't ask you for your opinion though, yet you directed it to me. Instead you offered unsolicited information without knowing anything about me, as if I'm a noob just getting into this in 2021 🙄.

I don't enjoy engaging with you.


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> I prefer people to give their opinions with force, actually, especially when it comes to technical topics.



I thought me and @Send0 were in a friendly debate, i guess i was wrong. 

Provided my opinion with some evidence and respected his opinion.


----------



## flenser

Tazz said:


> But goodluck @Send0 . See you in about a month with BTC @13-25k, and alt’s explosive for a few weeks before their dip into another 4 year bear market.


That would be awesome. The USD is going no where but down. $13K would be a gift. I'm not following alt well enough to predict much. I hope you make a killing.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> I thought me and @Send0 were in a friendly debate, i guess i was wrong.
> 
> Provided my opinion with some evidence and respected his opinion.


I never gave an opinion, and I definitely didn't ask for your opinion. You forced it down my throat unsolicited. 😂


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> It was pre 2017, and I wish I could say it was other than luck. I needed coins to purchase something, and bought far more than I needed.



That’s nuts, you’re the far and few that got in before 2017. Most people in crypto only got in after the 2017 bull run ended in around Jan 2018, and a lot of others during c-19 and it’s crazy run.

Did you sell your 3k entry or holding?


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> I never asked for your opinion. You forced it down my throat unsolicited.



Not sure why you’re in such a bad mood, it’s an open forum and we were having a friendly discussion, so i thought… 

That’s what a forums is about, not sure why you got hostile… If anything i was trying to help you with what I BELIEVE (as my opinion) is right. I even PM’d you telling you how I meant zero aggression towards you…


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> That would be awesome. The USD is going no where but down. $13K would be a gift. I'm not following alt well enough to predict much. I hope you make a killing.



USD is doing horrible!! Inflation is pretty bad too! I agree, 13k would be a huge gift and is almost a guaranteed HUGE profit if willing to hold for a decent timeframe.

Bitcoin is not dead, but I do believe, in the near short time, a giant crash will come until it’s next bull run in the years to come, like it always does.


----------



## Tazz

We should use this thread to share our opinions and experience with each other, not 1 person is 100% correct all the time, especially on investments, we all made bad plays… I actually enjoyed hearing your opinions, not sure why it had to come to an aggressive point on you’re end of being more “rich” or “experienced”. 

Maybe you do have more money, I dont care, it doesn’t invalidate my opinion or viewpoints, but a friendly shared opinion with some reasoning behind it might… @Send0


----------



## flenser

Tazz said:


> That’s nuts, you’re the far and few that got in before 2017. Most people in crypto only got in after the 2017 bull run ended in around Jan 2018, and a lot of others during c-19 and it’s crazy run.
> 
> Did you sell your 3k entry or holding?


I have never sold BTC. WHat I have pre-2017 is 100% anonymous. 

Here's a really sad story, though. Back in 2012, maybe. I had access to several dozens of multiprocessor PCS that went unused maybe 12-14 hours a day. I could have had them mining BTC, but....  I let SETI use them.


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> I have never sold BTC. WHat I have pre-2017 is 100% anonymous.
> 
> Here's a really sad story, though. Back in 2012, maybe. I had access to several dozens of multiprocessor PCS that went unused maybe 12-14 hours a day. I could have had them mining BTC, but.... I let SETI use them.



Bitcoin mining back then was pretty easy, you could of mined millions of $ of bitcoin.

But this game you can’t beat yourself up over stuff like that, we’ll never get a perfect entry or sell point. 

We all don’t have crystal balls and i often find myself beating myself up too for selling certain assets too early or too late. 

Still, the fact you got in before 2017 shows you were before the crowd.


----------



## Samp3i

But xrp is a shit coin, no one is giving a fuck about it at all... I do hold it tho but I don't really see any chances for it to go really at ATH at all. XRP didn't even reach ath at the last pump in April or whatever where even stellar could go back to past ATH etc. 4$ will never be seen soon imho

On the other hand there are plenty of Alts that probably will keep climbing or at least that's what I hope, Luna BnB dot seems like they still have some gas for a last run IF this bullrun doesn't end in a week with another major crash killing all the sentiment and just leaving us with few years of bear 😂


----------



## Tazz

Samp3i said:


> But xrp is a shit coin, no one is giving a fuck about it at all... I do hold it tho but I don't really see any chances for it to go really at ATH at all. XRP didn't even reach ath at the last pump in April or whatever where even stellar could go back to past ATH etc. 4$ will never be seen soon imho
> 
> On the other hand there are plenty of Alts that probably will keep climbing or at least that's what I hope, Luna BnB dot seems like they still have some gas for a last run IF this bullrun doesn't end in a week with another major crash killing all the sentiment and just leaving us with few years of bear



We shall see! Let’s see what the market has in store!


----------



## JuiceTrain

Idk what's goin on here but it looks like Sendo & Tazz are business suit guys that have taken their ties off...sat down...opened the brief case and started yelling stonkz at each other lol


----------



## JCH

There are a lot of stocks that have been sucked into this pullback that are worth buying. I'm liking the airlines which took a huge hit last week.


----------



## CJ

I'll be loading up on Visa, Disney, and PayPal soon.

Let the dust settle, take the easy profits.


----------



## Tazz

CJ275 said:


> I'll be loading up on Visa, Disney, and PayPal soon.
> 
> Let the dust settle, take the easy profits.



Visa looks like an easy 10-30% play.


----------



## silentlemon1011

Looking at throwing some money into the markets
I'm already invested in crypto, made solid gains.

Sitting down with a few buddies and running some analysis weekly, these guys are up crazy amounts.
Doing some picks and running feasabilities over the next 3 months before I start purchasing.

In a few months I'll start posting my feasibility studies here.
In the mean time, if anyone has solid picks, I'm down to learn lol


----------



## flenser

This is sounding more and more like 1999.


----------



## Tazz

flenser said:


> This is sounding more and more like 1999.



You couldn’t be more right!!! This is the exact sentiment in the market that was there in the 1999 dot com bubble. This thing about to pop real soon (in my opinion).


----------



## Tazz

CEOs and insiders sell a record $69 billion of their stock, and the year isn't over yet
					

From Satya Nadella at Microsoft to Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, CEOs, founders and insiders have been cashing in their stock at the highest pace on record.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## JuiceTrain

This is the only thing of value I can contribute...😞


----------



## Send0

Sold BTC yesterday.. made a nice 12% profit from the dip. Now I have some pocket change to throw around.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

I think the btc charts still look good. I don't think this looks like past tops.


----------



## mugzy

Picked up Boeing today @ $207.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Tazz said:


> Oooof, defensive. I been doing it 12 years and made a living off it, and travel the world on a monthly basis. I’m willing to PM you my cold wallet portfolio balance screenshot, i think then you’d take my opinion serious..


I wanna see your cold wallet portfolio, not to compare dick size, but you got me curious!

PM me, maybe I'll show you mine too 😘


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> I wanna see your cold wallet portfolio, not to compare dick size, but you got me curious!
> 
> PM me, maybe I'll show you mine too 😘


The ol'.... "I'll show you mine if you show me yours'... game. I remember that!!!


----------



## Test_subject

Send0 said:


> Sold BTC yesterday.. made a nice 12% profit from the dip. Now I have some pocket change to throw around.


I sold my remaining BTC when it hit ~65000 USD a few weeks ago, right before the tank.  I’m out completely now. 

Unfortunately, I sold half of my holdings earlier this year when it hit 25k, thinking that there would be a hard pushback. Never happened.

Oh well. I bought in at like 7k, so it’s all money in the bank.


----------



## Tazz

Test_subject said:


> I sold my remaining BTC when it hit ~65000 USD a few weeks ago, right before the tank. I’m out completely now.
> 
> Unfortunately, I sold half of my holdings earlier this year when it hit 25k, thinking that there would be a hard pushback. Never happened.
> 
> Oh well. I bought in at like 7k, so it’s all money in the bank.



That’s a great sell, nearly a perfect top sell.


----------



## Test_subject

Tazz said:


> That’s a great sell, nearly a perfect top sell.


Yeah I was pretty happy with it for sure. It made up for getting fucked last time.


----------



## Send0

I'm thinking BTC will bounce around 38k - 43k. I plan to take a small position (5 - 10k) if it gets that low, and ride the momentum.

If it doesn't hold support at 38k - 43k, then I predict it will drop towards 30k - 35k before it reverses the trend.

When do you guys predict it will bounce.


----------



## Test_subject

Send0 said:


> I'm thinking BTC will bounce around 38k - 43k. I plan to take a small position (5 - 10k) if it gets that low, and ride the momentum.
> 
> If it doesn't hold support at 38k - 43k, then I predict it will drop towards 30k - 35k before it reverses the trend.
> 
> When do you guys predict it will bounce.


I think that’s accurate. Investor confidence is pretty shaken from essentially every crypto taking a giant shit across the board.  Hard to say with so many YOLO “buy the dip” Reddit investors, though. 

I think you’ll see some support around 40k, some stabilization, and then a drop to 35 or so as people realize their gains.


----------



## Tazz

Nice bounce on the daily charts today for the market


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> I'm thinking BTC will bounce around 38k - 43k. I plan to take a small position (5 - 10k) if it gets that low, and ride the momentum.
> 
> If it doesn't hold support at 38k - 43k, then I predict it will drop towards 30k - 35k before it reverses the trend.
> 
> When do you guys predict it will bounce.



I think a bounce to 53-56k soon, then a slow long bleed down to 13-19k where we’ll consolidate for a long time.


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> I'm thinking BTC will bounce around 38k - 43k. I plan to take a small position (5 - 10k) if it gets that low, and ride the momentum.
> 
> If it doesn't hold support at 38k - 43k, then I predict it will drop towards 30k - 35k before it reverses the trend.
> 
> When do you guys predict it will bounce.


We were all Trillionaires for a few minutes early this morning. Did you catch that fukk up?

I woke up to alerts of All Time Highs. I looked and was like...... WHOAAAAA!!!  😳😳😳









						Coinbase and CoinMarketCap briefly displayed overblown crypto prices
					

Tweets showed bitcoin's price on CoinMarketCap at $799 billion per coin, giving it a market value of $14.7 quintillion.



					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Send0

CJ275 said:


> We were all Trillionaires for a few minutes early this morning. Did you catch that fukk up?
> 
> I woke up to alerts of All Time Highs. I looked and was like...... WHOAAAAA!!!  😳😳😳


No, I didn't see it. What did it spike to? Like 700k? 😂


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> No, I didn't see it. What did it spike to? Like 700k? 😂


Almost $800 BILLION!!!









						Coinbase and CoinMarketCap briefly displayed overblown crypto prices
					

Tweets showed bitcoin's price on CoinMarketCap at $799 billion per coin, giving it a market value of $14.7 quintillion.



					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## CJ




----------



## CJ

Imagine being awake at that time, seeing it live, frantically trying to cash out?  🤣


----------



## Send0

CJ275 said:


> Imagine being awake at that time, seeing it live, frantically trying to cash out?  🤣


That was me in December of 2017, except with LTC 😂. Luckily it was real, and not just a fever dream.


----------



## Test_subject

CJ275 said:


> Imagine being awake at that time, seeing it live, frantically trying to cash out?  🤣


My small Luna experiment alone would have made me a very, very wealthy man.  I have 50 of the stupid things.


----------



## CJ

Test_subject said:


> My small Luna experiment alone would have made me a very, very wealthy man.  I have 50 of the stupid things.


I had over $97 Trillion dollars at one point this morning. 😳😳😳


----------



## flenser

Tazz said:


> I think a bounce to 53-56k soon, then a slow long bleed down to 13-19k where we’ll consolidate for a long time.


Might not be that slow. The Fed is finally touching the third rail. If there's a cash crunch, as usually happens, the big traders will sell anything not nailed down to make margin. There will be fire sales on crypto and precious metals for certain.


----------



## Send0

flenser said:


> Might not be that slow. The Fed is finally touching the third rail. If there's a cash crunch, as usually happens, the big traders will sell anything not nailed down to make margin. There will be fire sales on crypto and precious metals for certain.


Doubt it... They said the same thing when China cracked down on miners, they said the same thing when the fed said they were going to crack down in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020... they said the same thing when crypto exchanges kept getting hacked and people losing money..  they said the same thing a lot of times in the past.

I'm going to side with the history we've experienced to date.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> Doubt it... They said the same thing when China cracked down on miners, they said the same thing when the fed said they were going to crack down in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020... they said the same thing when crypto exchanges kept getting hacked and people losing money.. they said the same thing a lot of times in the past.
> 
> I'm going to side with the history we've experienced to date.



All history points to a crash. 2013 history, 2017 history. Everything points to bitcoin crashing.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> All history points to a crash. 2013 history, 2017 history. Everything points to bitcoin crashing.


You also said I was going to lose my money, and yet I made a profit. Do what you like, it's no difference to me.


----------



## flenser

Send0 said:


> Doubt it... They said the same thing when China cracked down on miners, they said the same thing when the fed said they were going to crack down in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020... they said the same thing when crypto exchanges kept getting hacked and people losing money..  they said the same thing a lot of times in the past.
> 
> I'm going to side with the history we've experienced to date.


Not that I pay much attention, but "they" do say a lot. I hope you've experienced more history than 2017 to present to be so certain of things. Not saying you're wrong, but you do seem extremely confident.


----------



## Send0

flenser said:


> Not that I pay much attention, but "they" do say a lot. I hope you've experienced more history than 2017 to present to be so certain of things. Not saying you're wrong, but you do seem extremely confident.


I've been in crypto far longer than that.

I'm not trying to sell anyone anything. You guys go on with how you feel things will turn out. Your approach is very cautious, but also doesn't leave you much room to take advantage of opportunities.

I'm not sure if you guys are long in crypto... your perspective would make more sense in that context. 

I'm no longer long in crypto. I made my fortune and ran. Now I pay someone to manage the vast majority of my money. I keep a small amount on the side for me to play with crypto, stocks, forex, etc.

All of my plays in crypto are short/medium term. There's a saying, protect profits... Take profits often. Anyone who doesn't take this approach is just gambling IMO.

If people feel strongly that crypto will tank, then I recommend they get into shorting. I've done it in the past, it works but is risky because of how volatile the market can be.. it can literally flip directions in a second.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> You also said I was going to lose my money, and yet I made a profit. Do what you like, it's no difference to me.



I literally never said that lol or anything close to that. I stayed my opinion that bitcoin will soon crash and alt’s will takeover. Just like history shows, 2013, 2017.


----------



## Send0

Tazz said:


> I literally never said that lol or anything close to that. I stayed my opinion that bitcoin will soon crash and alt’s will takeover. Just like history shows, 2013, 2017.


You didn't say it directly, but you did imply it. And you wonder why I don't like talking with you? 🙄

Here's your quote


Tazz said:


> But goodluck @Send0 . See you in about a month with BTC @13-25k, and alt’s explosive for a few weeks before their dip into another 4 year bear market.



Do what you like. I wish you good fortune despite the fact that I don't like you.


----------



## Tazz

Send0 said:


> You didn't say it directly, but you did imply it. And you wonder why I don't like talking with you?
> 
> Here's your quote
> 
> 
> Do what you like. I wish you good fortune despite the fact that I don't like you.



Well i wouldn’t wish anyone in stocks or crypto lose money. I stated my opinion it would go down lol, not that you lose money. No idea if you were even in for a day trade, swing, or long. So there was no idea behind my statement implying you losing money. It’s simply my opinion on the subject matter in terms of where price will go based on chart analysis.


----------



## flenser

Send0 said:


> I've been in crypto far longer than that.
> 
> I'm not trying to sell anyone anything. You guys go on with how you feel things will turn out. Your approach is very cautious, but also doesn't leave you much room to take advantage of opportunities.
> 
> I'm not sure if you guys are long in crypto... your perspective would make more sense in that context.
> 
> I'm no longer long in crypto. I made my fortune and ran. Now I pay someone to manage the vast majority of my money. I keep a small amount on the side for me to play with crypto, stocks, forex, etc.
> 
> All of my plays in crypto are short/medium term. There's a saying, protect profits... Take profits often. Anyone who doesn't take this approach is just gambling IMO.
> 
> If people feel strongly that crypto will tank, then I recommend they get into shorting. I've done it in the past, it works but is risky because of how volatile the market can be.. it can literally flip directions in a second.


I was only responding to what you wrote. I'm glad you made your fortune, and I hope the ones you pay are able to keep it for you.


----------



## Jet Labs

Man I wish I had the know how to do trading/investing like some of you guys!

All I'm confident doing is buying when bitcoin dips then selling when it goes back up lol.


----------



## flenser

Jet Labs said:


> Man I wish I had the know how to do trading/investing like some of you guys!
> 
> All I'm confident doing is buying when bitcoin dips then selling when it goes back up lol.


We only think we know what we are doing. The ones that lose jump off buildings. The ones that win write books with absolute certainty they know the secret to investing. Mostly it's just chance : )


----------



## Jet Labs

flenser said:


> We only think we know what we are doing. The ones that lose jump off buildings. The ones that win write books with absolute certainty they know the secret to investing. Mostly it's just chance : )



For the average working person quite a bit of extra spending cash can be made buying in on dips and then selling when high, but I'm talking with like 10k. Even if just using 5k it can still bring in extra grocery money or Xmas funds.

When it dropped below 60k Canadian the other day I was like WOO HOO cause when it hits 81 or 82 again I'll sell and make a good couple bucks for doing absolutely nothing lol.


----------



## Samp3i

Looking forward for one last pump of Alts before bear market comes .. I'm not really confident it will happen tho...


----------



## flenser

Jet Labs said:


> For the average working person quite a bit of extra spending cash can be made buying in on dips and then selling when high, but I'm talking with like 10k. Even if just using 5k it can still bring in extra grocery money or Xmas funds.
> 
> When it dropped below 60k Canadian the other day I was like WOO HOO cause when it hits 81 or 82 again I'll sell and make a good couple bucks for doing absolutely nothing lol.


My experience has been that BTFD works until it doesn't. Then all bets are off. I wouldn't personally be putting 5K at risk if I were concerned with making extra grocery money : )


----------



## Test_subject

flenser said:


> My experience has been that BTFD works until it doesn't. Then all bets are off. I wouldn't personally be putting 5K at risk if I were concerned with making extra grocery money : )


There are way safer ways to invest money, that’s for sure. ETFs are are about as safe as it gets, but they’re more of a long play.

Crypto investing is functionally not much different than day/swing trading at the end of the day — unless you’re taking long positions on the blockchain technology or something like that.  Most people lose money.


----------



## Samp3i

Test_subject said:


> There are way safer ways to invest money, that’s for sure. ETFs are are about as safe as it gets, but they’re more of a long play.
> 
> Crypto investing is functionally not much different than day/swing trading at the end of the day — unless you’re taking long positions on the blockchain technology or something like that.  Most people lose money.


Ppl lose money on crypto because they are greedy and don't keep taking profit while stuff climb up.


----------



## flenser

Test_subject said:


> There are way safer ways to invest money, that’s for sure. ETFs are are about as safe as it gets, but they’re more of a long play.
> 
> Crypto investing is functionally not much different than day/swing trading at the end of the day — unless you’re taking long positions on the blockchain technology or something like that.  Most people lose money.


I only invest for the long term anymore, mostly individual companies that make stuff, commodities and the like. I wouldn't put ETFs in the same category of investments. They are trading instruments IMO, and poorly leveraged for the purpose.


----------



## Test_subject

flenser said:


> I wouldn't put ETFs in the same category of investments. They are trading instruments IMO, and poorly leveraged for the purpose.


I perhaps didn’t write my thoughts very clearly.  I wasn’t comparing ETFs to crypto investment. They’re not even remotely the same. I only mentioned ETFs as a safe (as safe as investing gets, not “safe”) investment in comparison.

I’ve made a ton of money with Invesco QQQ.


----------



## Samp3i

flenser said:


> I only invest for the long term anymore, mostly individual companies that make stuff, commodities and the like. I wouldn't put ETFs in the same category of investments. They are trading instruments IMO, and poorly leveraged for the purpose.


ETFs are great long term investment if you are happy with an average return of 7% more or less.

Buying an all world ETF is the only thing you need maybe one can add one or two more tops. Booglehead way.


----------



## Test_subject

Samp3i said:


> ETFs are great long term investment if you are happy with an average return of 7% more or less.
> 
> Buying an all world ETF is the only thing you need maybe one can add one or two more tops. Booglehead way.


ETFs are the backbone of my portfolio essentially.  The money that I’ve made with my other plays generally goes into them and makes me a steady and relatively safe return.

My day job pays enough that I can just sit on them and watch them grow.


----------



## Send0

Test_subject said:


> There are way safer ways to invest money, that’s for sure. ETFs are are about as safe as it gets, but they’re more of a long play.
> 
> Crypto investing is functionally not much different than day/swing trading at the end of the day — unless you’re taking long positions on the blockchain technology or something like that.  Most people lose money.


Exactly! This is why I keep saying there's not much point in being long in crypto. It's all about scalping.. buying dips and making 10-20% here and there.

For any chartists out there, crypto is pretty good about following Fibonacci retracements most of the time. Also, stay out of the pump and dump coins... you'll never get your money back if you get caught holding bags.


----------



## Send0

Samp3i said:


> Ppl lose money on crypto because they are greedy and don't keep taking profit while stuff climb up.


Exactly.. take the profits and take them very often!


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> Exactly.. take the profits and take them very often!


Guilty, I have to start doing this. I don't pay attention to it much.


----------



## Send0

CJ275 said:


> Guilty, I have to start doing this. I don't pay attention to it much.


Someone once told me, you'll never be mad for taking profits... but you'll always be pissed for taking losses.

Took me until my mid 30's to finally learn the lesson taught to me 10 years prior. 🥴


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> Someone once told me, you'll never be mad for taking profits... but you'll always be pissed for taking losses.
> 
> Took me until my mid 30's to finally learn the lesson taught to me 10 years prior. 🥴


Similar.... I've always heard to not regret ringing the register.


----------



## CJ

I might pull the trigger on Citigroup as a value play. PE in the 5's, will do well if interest rates start to climb next year. Pretty solid risk:reward ratio, this is the 3rd straight day with a green candle.


----------



## Canadian Kush

Added some Nio and DraftKings to my bleek looking portfolio. 40% off boxing day sales on stocks.  haha


----------



## Canadian Kush

Just when ya think it's hit bottom, it gets worse.


----------



## Samp3i

Canadian Kush said:


> Just when ya think it's hit bottom, it gets worse.


It's not that bad come on, could be a lot worse 😂


----------



## CohibaRobusto

There is a closed-end municipal bond fund that I pay attention to because it pays good dividends that are exempt from federal income tax. IIM is the ticker.

It is at a great buying price right now. Whenever it goes below $14/share, it doesn't generally stay there for long, because you're getting in at a discount to par. When it goes above $17/ share, it is a good time to sell because it generally doesn't stay over $17 for very long either. You can see where I sold my holdings here back in June 2021.

I bought back into it this week.


----------



## Send0

CohibaRobusto said:


> There is a closed-end municipal bond fund that I pay attention to because it pays good dividends that are exempt from federal income tax. IIM is the ticker.
> 
> It is at a great buying price right now. Whenever it goes below $14/share, it doesn't generally stay there for long, because you're getting in at a discount to par. When it goes above $17/ share, it is a good time to sell because it generally doesn't stay over $17 for very long either. You can see where I sold my holdings here back in June 2021.
> 
> I bought back into it this week.


This is a good tip. I'm looking for something new to flip around. I'll check it out when I land back home. Thanks man!


----------



## lifter6973

Send0 said:


> This is a good tip. I'm looking for something new to flip around. I'll check it out when I land back home. Thanks man!


so you guys do the short term buys and try to flip?  Seems risky.


----------



## Send0

lifter6973 said:


> so you guys do the short term buys and try to flip?  Seems risky.


Define short term? I usually hold for a few months. But I'd I get a 15-20% rise then I take my profits and run.

The key is to figure out where the bottom is. I leverage a lot of technical analysis to help me estimate where it might be. This is by no means guaranteed, but before I made it in crypto I used this method to grow my portfolio with major success.

An easy method to plot potential support and resistance points is to use Fibonacci retracements. That's not my only technique I use, but when I'm scanning stocks to trade it is one of the first things I look at.


----------



## lifter6973

Send0 said:


> Define short term? I usually hold for a few months. But I'd I get a 15-20% rise then I take my profits and run.
> 
> The key is to figure out where the bottom is. I leverage a lot of technical analysis to help me estimate where it might be. This is by no means guaranteed, but before I made it in crypto I used this method to grow my portfolio with major success.
> 
> An easy method to plot potential support and resistance points is to use Fibonacci retracements.


Do you use etrade or online stuff? I have broker but they charge per transaction. I hear that it is hard to cash out with etrade.
I did look up the particular IIM and it has had that trend over the last year. I don't know that I would bank on that.

Gonna have to google Fibonacci retracements. Im down for a little risk and would rather do it through online platform than my financial advisor.


----------



## Send0

lifter6973 said:


> Do you use etrade or online stuff? I have broker but they charge per transaction. I hear that it is hard to cash out with etrade.
> I did look up the particular IIM and it has had that trend over the last year. I don't know that I would bank on that.
> 
> Gonna have to google Fibonacci retracements. Im down for a little risk and would rather do it through online platform than my financial advisor.


I used to look at L2 data when I was day trading... but that is a risky trading method that I never was able to be consistent at. So I don't even bother with brokerage data anymore.

If you mean who do I use to trade stocks with, then currently I'm testing out alpaca and hoping to move to it entirely. But I also currently use etrade and interactive brokers.

For technical analysis I use tradingview to scan stocks/crypto for trades, and lever


----------



## CJ

lifter6973 said:


> Do you use etrade or online stuff? I have broker but they charge per transaction. I hear that it is hard to cash out with etrade.
> I did look up the particular IIM and it has had that trend over the last year. I don't know that I would bank on that.
> 
> Gonna have to google Fibonacci retracements. Im down for a little risk and would rather do it through online platform than my financial advisor.


If you pay per trade, you may be the last person left doing that.... Unless you're not in the US.


----------



## lifter6973

CJ said:


> If you pay per trade, you may be the last person left doing that.... Unless you're not in the US.


Yeah, my current financial advisor I have had some recent issues with. I still like them but I don't like to just use one source and dude has to regain my confidence in him anyways before I move somewhere else.
I didn't really get into this stuff at all until the last 5 years or so if not counting work 401k which just dont fuck with at all.


----------



## Send0

lifter6973 said:


> Yeah, my current financial advisor I have had some recent issues with. I still like them but I don't like to just use one source and dude has to regain my confidence in him anyways before I move somewhere else.
> I didn't really get into this stuff at all until the last 5 years or so if not counting work 401k which just dont fuck with at all.


You should absolutely fuck with your 401k if you can. Maximize gains wherever possible. 

Some 401k funds have high fees, at a minimum that's something that should be addressed in anyone's 401k holdings.


----------



## lifter6973

Send0 said:


> You should absolutely fuck with your 401k if you can. Maximize gains wherever possible.
> 
> Some 401k funds have high fees, at a minimum that's something that should be addressed in anyone's 401k holdings.


I'll look into it.  The only thing I've really done is make sure I max contribution in line with company match max.


----------



## Send0

lifter6973 said:


> I'll look into it.  The only thing I've really done is make sure I max contribution in line with company match max.


If you can manage to contribute the maximum allowed per year, then I'd recommend that too... regardless of what the company match is.

I understand that may not be fiscally possible for everyone, but thought I'd mention it even if it seemed obvious.


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> If you can manage to contribute the maximum allowed per year, then I'd recommend that too... regardless of what the company match is.
> 
> I understand that may not be fiscally possible for everyone, but thought I'd mention it even if it seemed obvious.


I differ slightly. I suggest you contribute to the match, then max out an IRA if you're eligible, then go back to the 401k if you still have money earmarked for retirement savings.

You have the whole world of investments available to you in an IRA, you're not limited to the options your plan provider chooses. There are some bad 401k's out there. There are even some that are so bad, with poor investments options, high fees, etc... that I'd even say to avoid entirely, even with a match. That's rare though. 

Set the contributions up to be automatic, so it gets done!!


----------



## Send0

CJ said:


> I differ slightly. I suggest you contribute to the match, then max out an IRA if you're eligible, then go back to the 401k if you still have money earmarked for retirement savings.
> 
> You have the whole world of investments available to you in an IRA, you're not limited to the options your plan provider chooses. There are some bad 401k's out there. There are even some that are so bad, with poor investments options, high fees, etc... that I'd even say to avoid entirely, even with a match. That's rare though.
> 
> Set the contributions up to be automatic, so it gets done!!


It depends on the companies 401k plan. I can invest in individual stocks, or I can use funds. At my last job, they only let you pick funds.


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> It depends on the companies 401k plan. I can invest in individual stocks, or I can use funds. At my last job, they only let you pick funds.


Lucky bastard. 

Mine just switched 401k stewards, the new one is fees up the ass. Even the index fund options have fees over 1%. That's insane!!!! 

I won't contribute another penny.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

lifter6973 said:


> so you guys do the short term buys and try to flip?  Seems risky.


I'm more of a medium to long term investor, and I mainly do relatively safe plays.

Like this muni bond fund for example, it's super safe to get stuck in.


----------



## silentlemon1011

CohibaRobusto said:


> I'm more of a medium to long term investor, and I mainly do relatively safe plays.
> 
> Like this muni bond fund for example, it's super safe to get stuck in.



Pretty much summarizes my thought process.

I dont want to be constantly checking and trading (Even on my self managed assets) so I try to stick with long term balanced picks that allow me to relax.


I may not make some of the same aggresive returns that some of my friends and family do.

But neither am I drinking tequila by the bottle when some of their investments drop heavily, peace of mind is it's own wealth


----------



## Iron1

CJ said:


> I differ slightly. I suggest you contribute to the match, then max out an IRA if you're eligible, then go back to the 401k if you still have money earmarked for retirement savings.
> 
> You have the whole world of investments available to you in an IRA, you're not limited to the options your plan provider chooses. There are some bad 401k's out there. There are even some that are so bad, with poor investments options, high fees, etc... that I'd even say to avoid entirely, even with a match. That's rare though.
> 
> Set the contributions up to be automatic, so it gets done!!



There's different schools of thought here but maxing out the the 401k before doing an IRA has two advantages.

It lowers your income tax burden and it maximizes the money you have in the market which in theory would produce a higher return if the investments between pre-tax/post tax accounts were equal.

But yes, some 401K plans have such high expense ratios that it doesn't make sense to dump money into past the maximum employer match. There are other personal things to consider like your accessibility to the funds that may sway your decision one way or another. Unfortunately there's no cookie cutter solution that works in every scenario. 

I'm going to copy/paste this from The Motley Fool because I'm too lazy to come up with my own example but the possibility of losing 1/3rd of your potential portfolio due to a high ER isn't something one should take lightly.



			
				Motley Fool said:
			
		

> As an example, let's say that you have $10,000 to invest. The S&P 500 has historically averaged returns of about 9.5% per year, and $10,000 compounded at this rate for 30 years is $152,200.
> 
> Now, let's say that you invest in a mutual fund that does just as well as the overall market. That is, the fund's investments generate total returns of 9.5% per year on average. However, to invest in this particular fund, you'll need to pay a 3% front-end sales charge, as well as a 1% expense ratio on an ongoing basis.
> 
> These may sound like small percentages, but these small fees result in a 30-year investment value of $109,200. In other words, the front-end sales charge and expense ratio reduced your investment gains by $43,000.


----------



## CJ

Iron1 said:


> There's different schools of thought here but maxing out the the 401k before doing an IRA has two advantages.
> 
> It lowers your income tax burden and it maximizes the money you have in the market which in theory would produce a higher return if the investments between pre-tax/post tax accounts were equal.
> 
> But yes, some 401K plans have such high expense ratios that it doesn't make sense to dump money into past the maximum employer match.
> 
> I'm going to copy/paste this from The Motley Fool because I'm too lazy to come up with my own example but the possibility of losing 1/3rd of your potential portfolio due to a high ER isn't something one should take lightly.


IRA contributions (traditional) are tax deductible, so it works out the same.

I ROTH them anyway, I can't see how taxes won't be going up over time, with gov't spending ever increasing and how big the deficit is already. My pension and SS are taxable, so I'm hedging on the tax issue.


----------



## Iron1

CJ said:


> IRA contributions (traditional) are tax deductible, so it works out the same.
> 
> I ROTH them anyway, I can't see how taxes won't be going up over time, with gov't spending ever increasing and how big the deficit is already. My pension and SS are taxable, so I'm hedging on the tax issue.



Thats fair, I always assume IRA's are ROTH for some reason.

I too do the same thing for the same reason, use my ROTH accounts as a hedge on future tax increases.


----------



## CJ

Clearly defined support level for AMD, if it tests it and bounces off, I'll take a position. Great risk to reward ratio.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Shit is so effed up right now. I didn't see this coming and didn't sell anything this time. I'm riding it out.

Anybody sell before this crash? Anybody buying right now? 

I feel like we have to be close to a bottom, but wtf do I know now obviously.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> Shit is so effed up right now. I didn't see this coming and didn't sell anything this time. I'm riding it out.
> 
> Anybody sell before this crash? Anybody buying right now?
> 
> I feel like we have to be close to a bottom, but wtf do I know now obviously.


Awhile back I shifted to mostly index funds, a few individual stocks for the long term, but stayed all in.

I don't have the time to watch this stuff anymore, so I tapped out of active trading.

Still hurts looking at it though. 😬


----------



## CohibaRobusto

CJ said:


> Awhile back I shifted to mostly index funds, a few individual stocks for the long term, but stayed all in.
> 
> I don't have the time to watch this stuff anymore, so I tapped out of active trading.
> 
> Still hurts looking at it though. 😬


Yeah sounds like you and I are in the same sinking boat lol.


----------



## CJ

CohibaRobusto said:


> Yeah sounds like you and I are in the same sinking boat lol.


Most of my individual picks will almost certainly bounce back though. I just looked, I have 11 individual stocks, 8 would be considered blue chips, so only 3 question marks... Shopify, Unity, Roku.

Vast majority is index/etf funds, mostly VOO and QQQM, plus a little in a cybersecurity etf(BUG) and a little in ARKK.

I definitely have a slight tech lean overall though.


----------



## silentlemon1011

CohibaRobusto said:


> Shit is so effed up right now. I didn't see this coming and didn't sell anything this time. I'm riding it out.
> 
> Anybody sell before this crash? Anybody buying right now?
> 
> I feel like we have to be close to a bottom, but wtf do I know now obviously.



Id prefer not to talk about it

lol


----------



## CJ

silentlemon1011 said:


> Id prefer not to talk about it
> 
> lol


I'm legit mad that I'm not in a position to be buying. I recently left my girl, so my bills rose because of that, plus inflation. 

If not, I'd be dollar cost averaging in like a mutha'fukker right now.


----------



## silentlemon1011

CJ said:


> I'm legit mad that I'm not in a position to be buying. I recently left my girl, so my bills rose because of that, plus inflation.
> 
> If not, I'd be dollar cost averaging in like a mutha'fukker right now.



This is my problem as well
Its laughable how cash poor i am,

Or id be doing some individual picks as opposed to my typical index funds much like you.

So it looks like ill just ride it out.

To quote Buffett
"I still have faith in the American economy, every drop will be followed with a rise that exceeds the initial recors before a drop, its just a question of time"


----------



## Send0

CohibaRobusto said:


> Shit is so effed up right now. I didn't see this coming and didn't sell anything this time. I'm riding it out.
> 
> Anybody sell before this crash? Anybody buying right now?
> 
> I feel like we have to be close to a bottom, but wtf do I know now obviously.


I'm down 9% for the year. I've got a stop loss set now, but at this point I'm just riding shit out.

Also trying to buy when I think I see a bottom.. but the problem is that there are a lot of emotions flying right now, so sometimes the bottom ends up falling out from under you. 😢


----------



## CJ

silentlemon1011 said:


> This is my problem as well
> Its laughable how cash poor i am,
> 
> Or id be doing some individual picks as opposed to my typical index funds much like you.
> 
> So it looks like ill just ride it out.
> 
> To quote Buffett
> "I still have faith in the American economy, every drop will be followed with a rise that exceeds the initial recors before a drop, its just a question of time"


I tried to get my ex gf to cash out a bunch of equity on her home after the Covid crash, interest rate was laughably low, to invest in the stock market. Nothing crazy, just index funds. 

She wouldn't, and I understand why, but she'd have been sitting pretty right now. She asked me recently if she should do it now. I told her her interest rate would be almost 3x now vs then. She's mad. 🤣


----------



## Swiper.

let’s say someone has 100k in the stock market and they think it’s going to completely crash. why not take your profits now and sell everything and wait until after the crash and then buy back stocks at the bottom? of course no one knows where the bottom is, but why not take your profits now cash out, put the cash in physical gold wait till the bottom of the stock market then purchase again? 
what are the negatives about this strategy?

I know there are some stocks that can go up during a huge crash.  I assume most people would transfer the money into those right?


----------



## CJ

Swiper. said:


> let’s say someone has 100k in the stock market and they think it’s going to completely crash. why not take your profits now and sell everything and wait until after the crash and then buy back stocks at the bottom? of course no one knows where the bottom is, but why not take your profits now cash out, put the cash in physical gold wait till the bottom of the stock market then purchase again?
> what are the negatives about this strategy?
> 
> I know there are some stocks that can go up during a huge crash.  I assume most people would transfer the money into those right?


Nothing wrong with that, but even if you know it's a bubble, that doesn't mean it'll end soon. It can still keep going up for years. You miss out on profits. 

Same with a bottom, there are sooo many false bottoms, picking the exact time to get in is just shit luck. 

And gold has its own set of issues also, separate from equities. No guarantee it'll trend inverse of the stock market.


----------



## Send0

Swiper. said:


> let’s say someone has 100k in the stock market and they think it’s going to completely crash. why not take your profits now and sell everything and wait until after the crash and then buy back stocks at the bottom? of course no one knows where the bottom is, but why not take your profits now cash out, put the cash in physical gold wait till the bottom of the stock market then purchase again?
> what are the negatives about this strategy?
> 
> I know there are some stocks that can go up during a huge crash.  I assume most people would transfer the money into those right?


There's a saying, you'll never be mad for taking profits but you'll be pissed for taking losses.

Your strategy is sound, and people should do this with at least a portion of their portfolio in an attempt to mitigate losses.


----------



## Send0

CJ said:


> Nothing wrong with that, but even if you know it's a bubble, that doesn't mean it'll end soon. It can still keep going up for years. You miss out on profits.
> 
> Same with a bottom, there are sooo many false bottoms, picking the exact time to get in is just shit luck.
> 
> And gold has its own set of issues also, separate from equities. No guarantee it'll trend inverse of the stock market.


That's why you only sell off a portion of your portfolio. Just enough to offset where you think losses might be going to in the medium term.


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> That's why you only sell off a portion of your portfolio. Just enough to offset where you think losses might be going to in the medium term.


Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.


----------



## Send0

CJ said:


> Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.


Yep, it's totally a crapshoot.


----------



## silentlemon1011

Swiper. said:


> let’s say someone has 100k in the stock market and they think it’s going to completely crash. why not take your profits now and sell everything and wait until after the crash and then buy back stocks at the bottom? of course no one knows where the bottom is, but why not take your profits now cash out, put the cash in physical gold wait till the bottom of the stock market then purchase again?
> what are the negatives about this strategy?
> 
> I know there are some stocks that can go up during a huge crash.  I assume most people would transfer the money into those right?




There are many downsides to that strategy.

The basics of it, are sound.
Sell high, buy low.

But no one actually knows when that will occur.
and you can end up hurting yourself by not playing it safe.

As for cash.

I dont believe in cash

This year alone, you lose almost 10% on inflation alone... with the Fed showing no signs of slowing the printing.

Some of us lost 10% on the markets as well... but at least we are in a situation where we dont have to time a buy.

Not a fan of gold, it doesnt produce anything.
We could talk physical commodities that are a relatively safe bet though, oil would have been a good one for example


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> There's a saying, you'll never be mad for taking profits but you'll be pissed for taking losses.
> 
> Your strategy is sound, and people should do this with at least a portion of their portfolio in an attempt to mitigate losses.


I don't know, I waver on this, unless you are an active trader. It's too hard to know when to pull the trigger, and emotions get in the way. 

I think most people should just ride out the dollar cost averaging train, as that kind of takes care of it to a degree.


----------



## Send0

CJ said:


> I don't know, I waver on this, unless you are an active trader. It's too hard to know when to pull the trigger, and emotions get in the way.
> 
> I think most people should just ride out the dollar cost averaging train, as that kind of takes care of it to a degree.


It's not that hard... Always have stop losses set, and frequently updated. When the market is good, set a larger stop loss, and when the market is questionable then set a tighter stop loss.

The problem with dollar cost averaging is that you can still end up with loss and not have even hit bottom by the time you run out of money trying to average down.


----------



## CJ

Send0 said:


> It's not that hard... Always have stop losses set, and frequently updated. When the market is good, set a larger stop loss, and when the market is questionable then set a tighter stop loss.
> 
> The problem with dollar cost averaging is that you can still end up with loss and not have even hit bottom by the time you run out of money trying to average down.


Big fan of stop losses, they've saved my butt more times than they've hurt me.


----------



## TeddyBear

.


----------



## DF

I had been doing some research into nuclear power and the Co's that deal with Uranium ect....

My research lead me to a company called Centrus Energy Corp.  (LEU) .  There are many positives with this stock.  I'm pretty sure that the powers that be will be pushing the next generation of nuclear power plants as green energy.  It does have that backing of Bill Gates and the Department of energy.

I took the plunge at 31 and change as of today its at 53.  Pretty good short term gain.


----------



## JuiceTrain

Juicey Bump ​What websites do you guys use for stock information and tracking? 

i just updated my brokerage account & setting up my laptop to monitor this stuff. 

still in the process of YouTube'n 
"how to use a brokerage account" 😄😄


----------



## DF

JuiceTrain said:


> Juicey Bump ​What websites do you guys use for stock information and tracking?
> 
> i just updated my brokerage account & setting up my laptop to monitor this stuff.
> 
> still in the process of YouTube'n
> "how to use a brokerage account" 😄😄


I use TD Ameritrade for my brokerage account.  I’ve had that account forever.  You can track everything from there.  But I do use yahoo finance just to track stocks.  You can plug in a list of stocks.


----------



## CJ

DF said:


> I use TD Ameritrade for my brokerage account.  I’ve had that account forever.  You can track everything from there.  But I do use yahoo finance just to track stocks.  You can plug in a list of stocks.


I'm Fidelity and Yahoo Finance. Similar. 

I use Trading View for charts.


----------



## CohibaRobusto

Etrade here.


----------



## JuiceTrain

I started a fidelity account back when I should've dropped some change on that GME b/s....updated all my info last night 

I'll look into the Yahoo site and Google WTF trading charts are when I get the chance..


----------



## CJ

JuiceTrain said:


> I started a fidelity account back when I should've dropped some change on that GME b/s....updated all my info last night
> 
> I'll look into the Yahoo site and Google WTF trading charts are when I get the chance..


Just throw your money into an index fund or ETF and forget about it.


----------



## JuiceTrain

CJ said:


> Just throw your money into an index fund or ETF and forget about it.



Idk exactly what that means (lingo wise) but I'll Google it later,

I have all my 401k vested on the S&P 500... (I assume that's the index/ETF)

but I want the brokerage account essentially to do the same thing, than be able to invest in something big (ex. BTC or GME) from the start w/the benefit of cashing out & withdrawing now vs waiting until I'm 50-60 w/e with the 401k


----------



## CJ

JuiceTrain said:


> Idk exactly what that means (lingo wise) but I'll Google it later,
> 
> I have all my 401k vested on the S&P 500... (I assume that's the index/ETF)
> 
> but I want the brokerage account essentially to do the same thing, than be able to invest in something big (ex. BTC or GME) from the start w/the benefit of cashing out & withdrawing now vs waiting until I'm 50-60 w/e with the 401k


Yes, a brokerage account you can add to or withdraw from whenever you wish, but it's a taxable account also, so familiarize yourself with the Wash Rule,  Long Term and Short Term Capital Gains, harvesting losses, etc...


----------



## CohibaRobusto

JuiceTrain said:


> Idk exactly what that means (lingo wise) but I'll Google it later,
> 
> I have all my 401k vested on the S&P 500... (I assume that's the index/ETF)
> 
> but I want the brokerage account essentially to do the same thing, than be able to invest in something big (ex. BTC or GME) from the start w/the benefit of cashing out & withdrawing now vs waiting until I'm 50-60 w/e with the 401k


You can still day trade with etf's as well. Look into sectors that you think might be trending and find etf's that target them. The etf will just be a stock ticker like anything else (i.e. VOO, SPY are s&p etf's). Might be a little safer than individual stocks.


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## DF

CJ said:


> Just throw your money into an index fund or ETF and forget about it.


The best thing I did was throw $7k in an index fund for my daughters 529 when she was born.  By the time she was ready for college it was about $40k.


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## CJ

DF said:


> The best thing I did was throw $7k in an index fund for my daughters 529 when she was born.  By the time she was ready for college it was about $40k.


That'll only buy textbooks nowadays. 🤣


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## JuiceTrain

CJ said:


> That'll only buy textbooks nowadays. 🤣



And it'll be used ones lol


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## DF

CJ said:


> That'll only buy textbooks nowadays. 🤣


Yea,  I have kicked myself plenty for not putting more $$ in her account.  $30k/year for a BS degree!


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## CJ

DF said:


> Yea,  I have kicked myself plenty for not putting more $$ in her account.  $30k/year for a BS degree!


I completely gave up, it wasn't worth it.

She has to take out loans, and I'll help out on the back end, if she gets her degree and doesn't fukk off.

She needs skin in the game.


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## DF

CJ said:


> I completely gave up, it wasn't worth it.
> 
> She has to take out loans, and I'll help out on the back end, if she gets her degree and doesn't fukk off.
> 
> She needs skin in the game.


I tried to get my daughter to go into the medical field nursing ect.... Damn kids don't listen!


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## CJ

DF said:


> I tried to get my daughter to go into the medical field nursing ect.... Damn kids don't listen!


Mine wants to be a vet, so she's basically going to go to medical school. 😷

She's looking at schools out in Montana, Wyoming, etc... Hopefully it's cheaper out there vs the Northeast


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## Joliver

DF said:


> The best thing I did was throw $7k in an index fund for my daughters 529 when she was born.  By the time she was ready for college it was about $40k.



Listen. I've been meaning to talk to you about that $8 bucks...

Seems as if I need it a bit more than you. 😔


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## Sven Northman

JuiceTrain said:


> Juicey Bump ​What websites do you guys use for stock information and tracking?
> 
> i just updated my brokerage account & setting up my laptop to monitor this stuff.
> 
> still in the process of YouTube'n
> "how to use a brokerage account" 😄😄


I currently use Etrade Pro for day trading before work everyday. Just got into options trading the SPY with my chat group.
The broker that most seem to really like is Tradestation. I'll be mirgrating to that platrform this week.

Steer clear of Trade Zero. A server that's constantly glitchy.

TradingView is a good tool that CJ also uses. You can link it to TD Ameritrades platform Think or Swim.

TL;DR

Barchart is a great free tool.  And newsfilter.io also has great tools for finding stocks along with current press releases. Cancer press releases seem to cause the most volatility to the upside lately. EPIX was one last week. I also traded QNGY friday for a nice profit.

If you day trade you want to look for low float stocks. Price depends on your capital available of course. Yahoo has statistics on float numbers.

I day trade FYI. When I build more capital I'll get into more long term investing.


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## Sven Northman

CJ said:


> Big fan of stop losses, they've saved my butt more times than they've hurt me.


Do you use mechanical or mental stop losses? I'm guilty of mental stop losses but should really stick to mechanical.


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## Thebiggestdumbass

Sven Northman said:


> I currently use Etrade Pro for day trading before work everyday. Just got into options trading the SPY with my chat group.
> The broker that most seem to really like is Tradestation. I'll be mirgrating to that platrform this week.
> 
> Steer clear of Trade Zero. A server that's constantly glitchy.
> 
> TradingView is a good tool that CJ also uses. You can link it to TD Ameritrades platform Think or Swim.
> 
> TL;DR
> 
> Barchart is a great free tool.  And newsfilter.io also has great tools for finding stocks along with current press releases. Cancer press releases seem to cause the most volatility to the upside lately. EPIX was one last week. I also traded QNGY friday for a nice profit.
> 
> If you day trade you want to look for low float stocks. Price depends on your capital available of course. Yahoo has statistics on float numbers.
> 
> I day trade FYI. When I build more capital I'll get into more long term investing.


I don’t know what the fuck any of this means but I’m intrigued with day trading. Do you have a how to for dummies you can link that you found most helpful?


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## JuiceTrain

Doin' some Google'n and came across this
Fidelity vs Trade Station - *outdated info // MARCH 2020


​


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## Sven Northman

JuiceTrain said:


> Doin' some Google'n and came across this
> Fidelity vs Trade Station
> 
> Trade Station ​
> View attachment 31454
> 
> 
> 
> Fidelity
> View attachment 31455
> ​


One of our most successful short biased traders uses Tradestation. His name is Alex Vaughn. Check out this channel and you can watch him go over trades with Tradestation. Josh Smith is one of the teachers in my chat group on Tradecaster.


			https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPDtYGotpuD-1x-Xd1CJurA/videos


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## Sven Northman

Thebiggestdumbass said:


> I don’t know what the fuck any of this means but I’m intrigued with day trading. Do you have a how to for dummies you can link that you found most helpful?


There are many a self proclaiming experts out there. I started by watching Tim Sykes trade penny stocks. I then started watching Tim Bohen with Stocks to Trade. I'd start with Stocks to Trade. Lots of great beginner tutorials and a great platform. 

My mentors are Sean Dekmar and Josh Smith on Tradecaster. They have You Tube channels as well.

Tradecaster is a paid subscription. Worth every penny to me. We get on in pre-market and go over press releases for the day and run our A.I. scanner to find plays. Awesome group with alot of really talented traders. Not tryna sell anyone one on it. Just what I do.


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## Test_subject

Thebiggestdumbass said:


> I don’t know what the fuck any of this means but I’m intrigued with day trading. Do you have a how to for dummies you can link that you found most helpful?


Day trading is a bad idea for most people. The vast, vast majority of people lose money doing it. 

If you want to get into trading I’d stick to ETFs, index funds and straightforward long positions until you get a feel for it.


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## JuiceTrain

Nerdwallet is my usual go2 site for reviews on financial establishments 
this is info on Fidelty & Trade Station from them

Fidelity // TradeStation

*edited my previous post because that was outdated information. (From 2020)


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## JuiceTrain

Just a blunt rundown comparison on what they offer
Barchart vs TradingView 

I'll start with TV since it's free,


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## CJ

Sven Northman said:


> Do you use mechanical or mental stop losses? I'm guilty of mental stop losses but should really stick to mechanical.


Both, but I've NEVER stuck to the mental SL points, and it's bitten me in the ass way more than it ended up working out. 

I don't have time these days, so I'm just long everything for the long term.


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## DF

Joliver said:


> Listen. I've been meaning to talk to you about that $8 bucks...
> 
> Seems as if I need it a bit more than you. 😔


My daughter is a junior this year.  So, that $40k is long gone.  I really need that $8.


----------



## DF

CJ said:


> Mine wants to be a vet, so she's basically going to go to medical school. 😷
> 
> She's looking at schools out in Montana, Wyoming, etc... Hopefully it's cheaper out there vs the Northeast


Lol, mine wanted to be a vet until she went to work for one 2 weeks one Summer.  The fuks threw her right into a surgery & she hit the deck.


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## Thebiggestdumbass

Test_subject said:


> Day trading is a bad idea for most people. The vast, vast majority of people lose money doing it.
> 
> If you want to get into trading I’d stick to ETFs, index funds and straightforward long positions until you get a feel for it.


Thanks bro, I’m researching etfs now


----------



## Sven Northman

Test_subject said:


> Day trading is a bad idea for most people. The vast, vast majority of people lose money doing it.
> 
> If you want to get into trading I’d stick to ETFs, index funds and straightforward long positions until you get a feel for it.


Agreed. There are but only a few that are completely self sufficient enought to be successful. The most important and often overlooked aspect of day trading is risk management. 

Alot of bro's jump into it with lambo dreams and get smoked because they dont study and paper trade first. No understanding of the basics like support, resistance, liquidity, and how smart money manpiulates the market.


----------



## CJ

Thebiggestdumbass said:


> Thanks bro, I’m researching etfs now


I'm a nutshell, ETFs are basically mutual funds that trade like stocks.

Mutual funds can only be bought/sold at the market closing, at market closing price, while ETFs can be bought/sold throughout the trading session in real time prices.


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## Mythos

Never seen this thread before.. I spent a couple years really learning the markets and still love it even though this volatility is making it impossible for me to do anything worthwhile. I used to like index fund options intraday before the market went nuts. Now I'm leaning more towards getting back to short selling small caps intraday..want to go hunting shit biotech and Chinese garbage to size up on when they're fading really smooth. My mentor for this stuff likes shorting violent stuff like nasdaq and otc supernovas and pump n dumps but I'm usually either too skittish on the volatility or I can't get fills with my pedestrian ass brokers. I like the slower stuff that just bleeds more anyway. But yea Imo the dangers of shorting are overstated unless you're holding onto or adding to toxic obviously-still-frontside multiday positions. Or you're shorting parabolics low floats intraday..which is easy to want to do. 

And for getting absolute risk defined short positions on over-inflated midcaps and even large caps over longer periods, reasonable size on quality (long expiration itm) puts are really pretty easy to use.. As long as the volatility of the underlying isn't totally nuts. Nobody in retail reddit land does this tho..for them it's all about overloading on ATM 1-30 DTE contracts that shit the bed so bad in a week that it no longer makes sense to sell them so they end up with the classic options blowups. And this is why everyone thinks long options are the worst thing ever. 


Investing though? I still think just dca into trustworthy S&P funds (if you can afford it) is the way to go.. Seems like it will rebalance its way to heaven pretty much until a meteor hits or Putin kills us all with nukes.


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## DF

Sonofabitch!  Sold my Hess stock last year!


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## Mythos

DF said:


> Sonofabitch!  Sold my Hess stock last year!


HES or HESM?


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## DF

Mythos said:


> HES or HESM?


HES


----------

